Food security, a climate crisis vulnerability

Published as part of the UK’s fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment, the report provides formal advice to government, intended to shape the next round of National Adaptation Programme and wider policy decisions.  

Overall, it paints a clear picture and a stark warning. The UK is already experiencing the impacts of climate change, and is not sufficiently prepared for the change coming down the road.  

The central climate projection underpinning the analysis is a world with 2°C of warming by 2050, with the possibility of more extreme outcomes still on the table. For context, the world is currently experiencing around 1.2-1.4°C of warming.  
 
Under a 2°C conditions, climate risks intensify sharply: hotter summers, wetter winters, more frequent extremes. Heat, flooding and drought are identified as the three defining risks the UK must now manage.  

The report cuts across the whole of society, taking into account health and infrastructure to cultural heritage, water systems and food security.  

Positively, the risk to food, farming and nature has been elevated, being called out as critical vulnerabilities 

Warmer summers, wetter winters 

For the agri-food sector conditions are becoming more volatile, and less predictable, and this is expected to worsen.  

In recent years, the UK has experienced record-breaking heat, alongside some of the wettest winters on record, the record-breaking 40°C summer heat of 2022 is likely to become the norm rather than an anomaly.  

By mid-century, extreme heat events will become more frequent, while heavier rainfall increases flood risk across key agricultural regions, with significant consequences:   

• Lower crop yields and greater variability 

• Reduced soil health from both drought and waterlogging 

• Increased pest and disease pressures 

• Disruption to planting and harvesting cycles 

The recent challenge from weather is having an impact now.  Three of the five worst harvests on record in the UK have occurred in the last five years.  Within that there is extreme volatility, some farmers reporting their best ever yields, whilst others their worst.  This will likely worsen.  

In one of the starkest warnings set out in the report, high quality farmland could fall from around 40% historically, to just over 10% by 2050.  This would point to a structural decline in the UK’s capacity to feed itself.  A key area of challenge is flood risk in the Fens, a highly productive region, critical to our horticultural production.  

UK horticulture production is not the only area where significant risk sits, with around 40% of food consumed in the UK imported and half of fruit coming from climate-vulnerable countries. The UK food system is essentially importing climate risk, when sourcing from regions already highly exposed to climate extremes.  

Supply chains under heat stress 

One of the most underappreciated risks highlighted by the report is the vulnerability of the UK’s food supply chain to extreme heat. 

Much of the system is built for a temperate climate, which is unlikely to hold in future conditions.  

As illustrated earlier, under a 2°C scenario the UK could regularly experience temperatures above 40°C.  

At those levels, our cold-chain infrastructure begins to fail. Around half of refrigeration equipment may not operate effectively at these temperatures.  Given that roughly half of products are chilled or frozen, this creates a significant food safety, logistics and retail risk.  

Cold chain fragility is just one example of a system that is sensitive to heat, including labour productivity and transport reliability.  

Extreme rainfall and flooding create another set of risks. Disruption to transport networks, damage to infrastructure, and delays in distribution all increase the likelihood of supply interruptions.  The report specifically highlights vulnerability at Dover, where 62% of fresh produce imports enter via the port or the Channel Tunnel.  

What needs to change 

The Climate Change Committee report does not simply paint a negative picture, it illustrates the necessary and achievable actions that are required to take place.  Overall, it believes that the investment and technologies are scalable and manageable, totalling about £11bn a year across the whole economy.  

For food, this requires action across three levels. 

On farm, adaptation means investing in: 

• Water storage and smarter irrigation 

• Soil health and nature-based solutions 

• Crop diversification and new varieties 

• Precision farming and better climate data 

Many of these approaches are already being trialled by farmers. But scaling them requires the right policy environment, skills, and financial support.  

Across supply chains, the focus is on infrastructure: 

• Investing and improving cold chain capacity 

• Diversifying sourcing to reduce single points of failure 

• Investing in logistics that can withstand disruption 

• Reducing waste to improve system efficiency 

At a national level, the report signals a step change in how food should be treated by government and businesses 

• Better data on food system risks and vulnerabilities 

• Mandatory reporting of climate risks across large food businesses 

• Strategic planning for supply resilience 

• Clear government leadership on food security 

As many across the sector have argued, the UK has long had a national strategy for energy security. The case for a comparable approach to food is increasingly clear.