Dry weather tests resilience of the UK food system
20 May 2025Exploring how record-breaking dry weather strains UK farming, tests supply chains, and highlights climate risks.
Spring 2025 is rewriting weather history, with The Met Office reporting higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and abundant sunshine.
March and April have been unusually warm and dry, with April’s average temperature 1.7°C above normal and 56% of the average rainfall. Particular regions such as Yorkshire and the north east of England have seen less than 20% of the typical rainfall over April.
A severe strain on farming
The consequences for UK agriculture are swift and dramatic. Horticulture is seeing an early surge in strawberries, tomatoes, aubergines, and cucumbers, shortening the usual ‘hungry gap.’ But this premature harvest is putting pressure on supply chains, forcing the industry to quickly adapt processing, transport, and storage logistics.
Labour shortages are exacerbating the strain, highlighting the urgent need for automation across the food system to keep up with an increasingly volatile climate.
Meanwhile, reservoir levels are taking a hit—Northwest reserves have dropped to 68.9% from 91.1% last year. The Environment Agency is closely monitoring water companies’ responses and working with farmers on irrigation strategies to mitigate the damage.
The Environment Agency is responding to the limited rainfall by closely monitoring water companies’ implementation of dry weather plans, as well as working with farmers to plan supplemental irrigation.
Food system challenges and consumer impact
The dry conditions are delivering mixed results across cereal crops. Spring planting progressed quickly, but both spring and winter crops are now suffering. Many spring barley fields show signs of stress, while weed control is becoming increasingly difficult. Winter cereals like wheat and barley have declined in condition, though they remain stronger than last year. In contrast, winter oilseed rape has improved slightly.
What does this mean for consumers? Prices remain uncertain, but with disrupted farming cycles, cost pressures are likely to be passed down.
Over the long term, climate change will drive increased variability, likely to place upward pressure on prices and increase availability challenges.
A warm, dry spring brings short-term wins—early harvests and reduced reliance on imports for certain crops—but it also underscores the UK food system’s vulnerability to climate change. As highlighted in the IGD report, How resilient is your business?, adaption to climate change is crucial.
To withstand future shocks, the industry must invest in drought-resistant crops, water management systems, and smarter production methods. Resilience isn’t just about responding to a crisis—it’s about preparing for the next one.