Drought to downpour: The food system challenge

Climate change impacts: from heatwaves to harvest

Record‐breaking summer temperatures are continuing across the UK, with England experiencing the warmest June on record, including two heatwaves and temperatures as high as 33.2°C.

Changing climate is leading to more frequent and sustained episodes of drought, with 78% of UK farmers reporting significant drought impacts within the past five years.

Some areas of the UK are already experiencing the impact of prolonged warm and dry weather conditions. The Environment Agency declared a drought for both Yorkshire and Northwest England in June 2025, following the driest spring in 132 years for both regions. Key reservoirs such as Haweswater and Thirlmere are already below half capacity. On-farm reservoirs are also understood to be at low levels. These challenges are forcing local farmers to tackle crop, water and livestock challenges. 

The higher temperatures also increase the risk of sporadic heavy rainfall due to increased moisture retained in the air. Soil baked by the warm and dry conditions can’t absorb the sudden downpours, resulting in flash flooding and significant crop damage, soil erosion and risks to livestock.

Heavy rains generate surface runoff, carrying contaminated water into rivers, lakes and reservoirs. The wet conditions also favour the growth of fungi and moulds, again leading to increased risks to food safety.

With around 84% of farmers  reporting a drop in UK crop and livestock output due to climate change, these new conditions demand a rethink of traditional farming. The food system must embrace innovation and flexible production to stay competitive and feed the nation sustainably.

The hidden cost of a record-breaking summer

In 2025, many UK crops have been ready early, including both horticultural and combinable crops. Early harvest means that it is now possible to make some assessment of yield and quality.

Some crops have benefited from hot, dry weather. UK raspberries, strawberries, lettuce and other items have large yields and good quality. In June, wholesale prices for all three were down versus 2024, indicating good supply.

Other crops are more vulnerable, however. Other than oilseed, most combinable crops were in slightly worse condition in June 2025 than they were at the same point the previous year. According to AHDB, the major problem is dry conditions, rather than pests or disease.

UK wheat condition, all regions, USDA method

Although there are regional differences, it is likely that UK agricultural yields in 2025 will be down year-on-year. However, prices available at market will depend on stock levels, and the ability to bring in supplies from overseas.

For the moment, farm gate prices in the UK remain high, but there is no sign of a spike in prices of the type seen in 2022-23.

It is not only human food that requires consideration. Natural grazing and supplies of hay, silage and other fodder crops may also be affected by the weather.

Livestock farmers may run into shortages and higher prices, which could persist until new supplies become available in 2026. Animals may also be affected by heat, raising welfare issues.

Prices for red meat in the UK are currently very high and may rise higher if lack of fodder remains an issue.

Facing into a new, warmer, normal

While this stretch of weather may feel extreme, the reality is that the food system is facing into a new, warmer, “normal”.

The 1.5°C threshold is no longer a warning - it’s the new reality

 For the first time, 2024 saw the average global sea surface temperature stay above 1.5 degrees for the whole year. In 2025 not a single month has dipped below it. What was once a climate milestone is now the baseline.

 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), projects global temperatures could increase between 2.1°C and 3.5°C under an intermediate emissions scenario —potentially more than double today’s average.

Extreme weather is becoming routine

Looking ahead, the food system can expect the frequency and intensity of these weather events to increase. The chance of the UK reaching 40°C has increased over 20-fold since the 1960’s, with a 50% likelihood of reaching it again within the next 12 years. 

The food system is on the front line

The food system isn’t just exposed—it’s built for a climate that no longer exists. Drought is now the dominant threat, especially in southern Europe. Spain could see nine-times more days of severe drought by 2050 compared to 1990.

Recent research for the EU reveals that the financial toll is already staggering: €28 billion in annual agricultural losses across the EU, with crop and livestock losses projected to rise 40% by 2050 under current emissions pathways

Rethinking resilience

The risk is not only environmental—it’s financially unsustainable. Businesses must act now:

• Measure and map climate risk across your supply chain

• Diversify sourcing and production

• Invest in risk transfer and adaptation strategies

As the climate shifts, so must our approach. The UK government makes it clear: food security is national security. The first step toward long-term resilience for the UK food system is gaining a clearer understanding the embedded risks.

IGD’s Future of the UK Food System conference

Register your interest for IGD’s Future of the UK Food System conference in 2026 to hear further insights from IGD experts on the actions needed to create a more sustainable and resilient food system.

The event will bring fresh insights from our climate model and bringing together leading voices from across the industry. Stay informed and be part of shaping the future.