Resilience: water

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The food system is a major user of water, both for irrigating crops and for processing products. Every product has a water footprint, which may vary according to the method and location of production.

In every part of the world, water supply dictates the capacity to produce food and its quality. Due to climate change, precipitation is becoming increasingly variable in terms of where, when and the volume of rainfall.

Climate change impacts

The UK has a maritime temperate climate which brings mild winters, warm summers and high total rainfall. However, most of Central, Southern and Eastern England suffers from serious water stress, according to a 2021 assessment. Around 20% of European territory was also considered to be water-stressed in 2021.

Climate change is shifting weather patterns around the world. In the UK, summers are projected to become warmer and drier, with winters being warmer and wetter. Summer rainfall is expected to decrease by around 15% by the 2050s in England.

Water supply can be dictated by infrastructure spending as much as the amount of rainfall itself. The ability to store water increases resilience through drought periods. The last large reservoir built in the UK was in 1991.

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as winter storms and heatwaves. On average, between 2010 and 2019 UK winters were 12% wetter than in the period between 1961 and 1990.

The recent experience of Storm Babet may be an indication of what may be likely to occur in future winters. Daily record rainfall across 13 areas left fields submerged, destroying crops from the current season, and preventing the drilling for the following season.

Water shortages are likely to be a problem globally, in areas that the UK food system currently relies upon. Spain is the largest provider of the UK’s imported fresh fruit and vegetables. Spain is expected to experience a significant reduction in precipitation levels in the coming years.

Water shortages can reduce yields but can also drive availability risks. Exporting countries, during periods of drought, may reserve food for local consumption or prioritise water supply for households, impacting supply for importing countries.

It is important to note that, whilst food production is a major use of water, it is not the only one. Farmers and food processors may be in competition with other users. Regulators may restrict water use by food businesses during drought periods to protect household supplies.

Water quality

In the UK, only 14% of rivers are currently thought to be in good ecological health. One major reason for this is agricultural pollution coming from slurry, fertilisers and pesticides.

So far, scrutiny of water quality issues has focused mainly on sewage discharges, but it is easy to envisage that the focus will shift to agriculture and other sources of pollution.

This presents reputational risk to the food system as a whole and economic risks to any businesses implicated. Specific sectors, such as poultry and fish farming are likely to face the greatest scrutiny and stronger enforcement, in part due to their local environmental impact.

This shift in focus has begun through agricultural subsidies in both the UK and Europe:

• In the UK, the ELMs will provide subsidies for UK farmers for a range of activities, including specified actions designed to enhance water quality.

• European governments are currently making a coordinated effort to control fertiliser run-off, as specified by the Nitrates Directive. This may impact the future supply of food imports. may impact the future supply of food imports.

Restrictions on the use of pesticides and control of fertiliser run off, will support water quality and biodiversity in rivers and lakes but could impact yield. During significant outbreaks of pests and disease, the ability to use specific and targeted pesticides can be essential to protect food production.