After months in which household finances have been shaped by persistent cost pressures and geopolitical uncertainty, shoppers may finally have a few reasons to feel more optimistic. The latest UK inflation data shows food and non-alcoholic drink inflation slowing to 2.2% in May, down from 3.0% in April and the lowest level since December 2024. At the same time, tentative US-Iran peace efforts have raised hopes that energy market volatility could ease, even if the diplomatic process remains fragile.

For shoppers, the combination matters. Food prices are one of the most visible markers of the cost of living: shoppers are acutely aware of any changes in their overall basket spend. A slowdown in food inflation does not mean prices are falling, but it does suggest the pressure is becoming less intense, at least, for now.

Geopolitical uncertainty still shapes outlook

The geopolitical backdrop is also important. Recent US-Iran talks have been uncertain, with planned discussions in Switzerland postponed, but the existence of a ceasefire framework and a 60-day negotiation window points to a possible route away from escalation. If that reduces pressure on oil prices and supply chains, it could help limit further increases in fuel, transport and production costs,all of which eventually feed into household budgets and retail prices.

This is where shopper confidence could receive a meaningful boost. Confidence is rarely driven by one factor alone; it builds when people see several signals moving in the right direction. Slower food inflation offers immediate reassurance, while calmer energy markets would reduce the risk of another cost shock. Together, they could create the conditions for shoppers to feel more willing to spend, particularly on discretionary food and drink occasions.

The World Cup could unlock feel-good spending

The World Cup adds another layer of momentum. Our latest shopper research already shows that 36% of UK adults are tempted to spend more on food and groceries to celebrate the tournament, rising from 23% ahead of the 2022 World Cup. Crucially, almost four in ten shoppers say they would spend more if their team performs well. If England continue to progress, the national mood could translate into more hosting, sharing and last-minute convenience missions, from meal deals and snacks to drinks and barbecue occasions.

How retailers and suppliers can respond

Retailers and suppliers should therefore treat the coming weeks as a live opportunity. Value will remain essential, but the tone can begin to shift from resilience to cautious optimism. Clear price cues, timely promotions and event-led ranges can help shoppers participate without feeling they are losing control of their budgets. If lower food inflation, geopolitical de-escalation and football success align, the result could be a welcome lift in shopper confidence, and a timely reminder that optimism can be just as powerful a driver of behaviour as pressure.

What next?

Our next iteration of shopper confidence will be out in early July and indicate how each of these factors are influencing confidence on a weekly basis. In the meantime, our extensive World Cup coverage continues across Retail Analysis, ShopperVista and Away From Home.

ShopperVista subscribers can stay up to date with the latest through our Shopper Confidence Index page.