UK Away From Home market growth is expected to remain below inflation in 2026, as cautious consumer spending and rising operating costs create a polarised outlook across pubs, restaurants, contract catering and entertainment.
At a Glance
The AFH market is forecast to grow by 1.8% in 2026, below average market inflation of 4.7%.
Consumer spending power has improved modestly, but only 30% of consumers feel financially confident.
Growth is increasingly concentrated around value, convenience and experience-led occasions.
Entertainment and contract catering are among the strongest-performing sectors. Cinema admissions were up 15% year-to-date, while contract catering delivered growth of 9.3% in Q2.
The FIFA World Cup and warm weather delivered a significant summer boost to pub trading.
Rising labour, property and energy costs continue to put pressure on profitability across the sector.
Market performance continues to diverge by sector
Performance across channels has become increasingly polarised during 2026. While some sectors have struggled to maintain visit frequency, others have benefited from changing consumer behaviours and seasonal tailwinds.
The standout performer has been entertainment, with cinemas and bowling operators benefiting from a combination of blockbuster releases and prolonged periods of warm weather that encouraged consumers to seek indoor, air-conditioned venues. Cinema admissions in August were 56% higher than the previous year.
Contract catering has also maintained strong momentum, supported by workplace attendance patterns and stable demand, delivering growth of 9.3% in Q2.
By contrast, restaurants continue to face subdued demand, while takeaways and fast food operators are increasingly feeling the impact of consumers looking for additional opportunities to reduce spending.
FIFA World Cup boosts UK pub sales and footfall
July provided one of the brightest periods of the year for the licensed trade. England's progression to the World Cup semi-finals, combined with favourable weather conditions, created multiple high-profile social occasions that drove footfall and spending across pubs and bars.
Operator results highlight the scale of the opportunity. Stonegate reported 664,000 bookings during the tournament, alongside sales of 12.5 million drinks, while Punch Pubs achieved like-for-like sales growth of 59% across England's match days. Marston's reported a 22% increase in match-day sales and a 170% uplift across its sports-focused Grandstand pub format.
Delivery operators also benefited, with Just Eat reporting order volumes up 30% during the tournament period.
The results underline how major sporting events continue to create valuable trading opportunities by giving consumers clear reasons to spend and socialise.
Margin pressure remains one of the sector's biggest challenges
Although inflationary pressures have eased compared with previous years, operating costs remain elevated.
Menu and food input inflation have converged at approximately 4-5%, but labour, energy and property costs continue to place significant pressure on profitability.
Against a backdrop of cautious demand, operators are increasingly focused on improving productivity, simplifying menus, managing inventory more effectively and optimising labour deployment. These actions are likely to remain critical as businesses seek to protect margins and reduce exposure to future volatility.
What this means for AFH suppliers and operators
The first half of 2026 reinforces a clear message: consumers are becoming increasingly selective about which occasions they prioritise.
Growth is not disappearing from the market, but it is becoming more concentrated around occasions that offer a compelling combination of value, convenience or experience. Food-to-go, entertainment and event-led occasions continue to demonstrate resilience, while more discretionary restaurant visits remain under pressure.
For suppliers, the opportunity is to help operators strengthen value perceptions, create more memorable experiences and improve operational efficiency. With full-year growth expected to remain below inflation, winning share will depend on identifying the occasions consumers continue to prioritise and providing solutions that give them stronger reasons to visit and spend.
Key takeaway
AFH growth is increasingly concentrated around specific sectors and occasions rather than shared evenly across the market. Operators and suppliers that target resilient missions with a compelling combination of value, convenience and experience will be best placed to win share as consumers continue to spend selectively.
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AFH H1 2026 market review
A report covering how the AFH market performed in the first half of 2026, how this stacks up against our forecast and what this means for the full year.
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