UK forecasts: a five-year view
30 June 2026See all the latest forecasts IGD will publish in relation to the UK's retail and away from home markets.
In June and July, IGD’s teams of analysts will be publishing five-year forecasts covering inflation, the retail and away from home markets, and the outlook for their channels and sectors.
Together, the forecasts provide everything businesses operating in the grocery and away from home industries need to know about their growth outlook to 2031 and the factors driving and inhibiting that development.
Keep checking back for the latest insights and forecasts.
Exploring the IGD UK forecast in partnership with EXPLNERS
29 June 2026
Viewpoint: Food inflation forecasts 2026-28
19 June 2026
Against a more uncertain and structurally challenged macroeconomic backdrop, our Economics team provides an update to their inflation forecast for food and non-alcoholic drinks. As part of the Viewpoint report, this explores how sustained global instability, including ongoing conflict in the Middle East and wider geopolitical and weather-related risks, is shaping costs, supply chains and demand. It also sets out how prolonged disruption is expected to influence UK food prices, and what this means for businesses and consumers as they adapt to a more complex and persistent operating environment.
UK grocery channel forecasts 2026 – 2031
25 June 2026
Using our Economics team's food and drink inflation forecast for the retail industry, alongside other datapoints including population growth, the uptake and use of GLP-1 medicines, and shoppers’ evolving spending power, we forecast what this means for the overall grocery retail market to 2031, and what it will be worth by the end of that year.
How the market is set to develop will be used in conjunction with our retailer forecasts to provide a view on which channels will win and lose to 2031, with the accompanying report explaining the reasons behind the short- and long-term outlooks for each channel and the opportunities they provide. Clients will be able to use the report to understand how to overcome the industry’s central challenge, to drive real-term volume growth when household budgets are expected to remain under sustained pressure.
UK non-food forecasts 2026 – 2031
25 June 2026
This report provides a high-level forecast for non-food product sales in grocery stores. Readers will understand how sales of the market’s components, non-edible grocery, tobacco and vape, and other non-food products, will evolve over the next five years, enabling them to identify where the growth opportunities are to 2031 and what retailers and suppliers need to do to benefit from the outlook.
UK away from home forecast 2026 - 2031
30 June 2026
Our UK away from home forecast 2026 – 2031 report highlights the key foodservice industry trends to watch as shifting consumer behaviours change the shape of the market. As UK food price inflation continues, people are eating out less, but there is still room in the away from home market for occasions. This report gives a comprehensive overview of the whole away from home market trends, consumer behaviours, and the forecast for the market in light of rising financial pressures and GLP-1 usage.
UK total consumption forecast 2026 – 2031
30 June 2026
This report gives a comprehensive and unique view of the UK’s total food and drink market, combining at home retail and away from home to help you understand the key macroeconomic factors impacting the market, shifting consumer behaviours and declining shopper confidence, the impact of UK food price inflation, and the opportunities for a struggling away from home market. Explore our five key findings and understand the opportunities and barriers to success in a highly competitive market.
Food to go market forecast 2026 – 2031
When will it be published?
15 July 2026
What will the food to go market forecast report provide?
Our food to go market forecast provides a detailed five-year outlook for the market and its five sectors: three in away from home, coffee and drinks specialists, fast food specialists, and food to go specialists, and two from retail, hypermarkets and supermarkets, and convenience, forecourts and others. The report will provide insights into the growth drivers to 2031, how inflation will impact the market, and the dynamics affecting each sector, over the short- and long-term.
UK grocery and foodservice wholesaling forecast 2026
When will it be published?
31 July 2026
What will the grocery and foodservice wholesaling report provide?
This report breaks down how the grocery and foodservice wholesale market performed in 2025, identifies the customer channels driving growth, and compares this with recent years. It also provides data by segment for our five-year forecast period, from 2026 to 2031, and will help readers understand how the UK’s challenging macroeconomic environment is impacting the sector.
Explore our latest five-year forecasts
Access all current forecasts in one place and return for the latest updates rolling out this month and next.