UK away from home 5-year forecast

The UK away from home market continues to operate in a challenging environment, with growth constrained by cautious consumer spending, ongoing cost pressures and a slower pace of volume recovery. These factors are expected to shape performance over the medium term, limiting any significant growth in demand or expansion through to 2031. Our new five-year away from home forecast report explains how this is affecting all nine key sectors. It gives practical advice on how foodservice wholesalers, suppliers and operators can react to these challenges, highlighting where pockets of opportunities can be found. 

Growth remains value-led rather than volume-led 

IGD expects the AFH market to grow by 1.8% in 2026, reaching £103.3bn in food and drink sales. However, this growth will be driven mainly by price, with inflation forecast to average 4.7% across the total channel. 

Longer term, the market is forecast to reach around £123bn by 2031. Around 85% of the value growth between 2026 to 2031 is expected to be inflation-led, with volume recovery  not forecast until 2029. This means operators and suppliers will need to plan for a market where growth is harder to capture and margin discipline becomes more important. 

Changing consumer behaviour continues to reshape away from home 

Pressure on household budgets continues to influence how often consumers eat and drink out of home. AFH occasions remain highly discretionary, making the channel more exposed when consumers look for ways to manage spend. 

In the short term, more occasions are likely to shift back into the home, supported by retailers targeting missions that have traditionally sat within eating out. 

Consumers are also trading down within AFH, prioritising lower-cost formats and propositions that offer clear value. This does not mean demand has disappeared, but it does mean spend is becoming more intentional. 

Inflation and margin pressures continue to challenge foodservice operators 

Operators are still facing a challenging cost base, with labour, energy, transport and food costs continuing to weigh on profitability. These pressures are particularly difficult in a low volume growth environment, where increasing prices risks further weakening demand. 

As a result, protecting margins will remain a core priority. Operators will need to balance price, value and efficiency carefully, while suppliers will need to support customers with solutions that reduce complexity and improve operational resilience. 

Convenience-led formats are better placed, but not immune 

Quick Service Restaurants (QSRs) are expected to continue gaining share, supported by their strong fit with value, convenience and everyday missions. However, the sector is now beginning to feel more pressure as consumers continue to cut back, including on lower-cost eating out occasions. 

Performance is also uneven within QSR. Independents and smaller groups in particular are more exposed as they have fewer data capabilities, less promotional flexibility and weaker financial headroom than larger international brands. 

GLP-1s add a longer-term demand risk 

The growing use of GLP-1 weight management drugs is expected to create an additional headwind for AFH over time. The impact is likely to build gradually, but it could affect both visit frequency and average spend as adoption increases. 

For operators, this reinforces the need to understand shifting consumer missions and adapt offers around smaller portions, nutrient dense dishes and flexible menu options, such as tapas-style small plates, sharing dishes and easy personalisation. 

Growth opportunities remain in focused missions 

Despite these challenges, growth opportunities remain. Gen Z is expected to continue supporting demand for quick, convenient and socially relevant formats, particularly where affordability is clear. 

Premium food to go, bakeries and chicken shops are among the segments expected to outperform, reflecting their strong fit with current consumer needs. These formats combine convenience, value and perceived quality in ways that are well aligned to more selective consumer behaviour. 

What this means for operators 

Operators should prioritise margin protection, with more disciplined pricing, tighter cost control and clearer decisions on where to invest. 

Offers should be built around specific missions where consumers are still willing to spend, such as convenient meal solutions, affordable treats and experience-led occasions. Menu simplification, labour efficiency and sharper promotional targeting will be important levers, especially as broad discounting becomes harder to sustain. 

What this means for suppliers 

Suppliers have an important role to play in helping operators manage a tougher operating environment, particularly through products and solutions that reduce labour, waste and menu complexity. 

Flexible ingredients and modular menu solutions will be valuable where they can work across multiple formats, dayparts and price points. 

Suppliers should also align innovation to the parts of the market with greater resilience, including food to go, bakery-led formats, chicken and other convenience-led propositions. 

Opportunities to grow in a slower market 

Although the outlook is challenging, the AFH market still offers opportunities for operators and suppliers that can respond to changing consumer priorities with greater precision, as IGD Senior Insight Analyst Nichola Gallagher explains: 

“The next five years will be less about chasing broad-based volume growth and more about winning the right occasions. Operators and suppliers that stay close to changing missions, protect margins and invest where demand is most resilient will be best placed to outperform.” 

Download the full report 

To explore the full market outlook and the opportunities identified by IGD’s experts, read the Away From Home forecast 2026-2031 report, available to Away From Home subscribers. 

Retail Analysis subscribers can read the essential insights here. 

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