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Bulletin: Future talent and population change

01 October 2026 | Michael Freedman

Including work experience, Feeding Britain’s Future, energy bills, food inflation, population, right to work, and the Labour Party conference.

Milburn calls for mandatory work experience 

Alan Milburn, who is leading the government-commissioned review into young people and work, has called for work experience to be mandatory for Key Stage 4 pupils aged 14 to 16. He said placements should take place in a real workplace and include employer feedback, highlighting that around four in ten young people in this age group currently receive no work experience. Milburn also argued that careers awareness should begin in primary school to broaden young people’s horizons. 

See our latest article, Future talent: the foundation of resilience 

IGD opinion 

Milburn’s comments reinforce IGD’s view that future talent is fundamental to a resilient food system. Sparking an interest in food from an early age can encourage more young people to explore careers in the sector later on. Initiatives from the NFU and the British Nutrition Foundation provide strong examples of this early engagement, and both organisations are committed to Feeding Britain’s Future. IGD is leading activity for 11–16-year-olds, including employer-led projects, site visits and placements. By bringing the industry together to support young people throughout education, Feeding Britain’s Future demonstrates the value of collective action. 

Energy bills forecast to rise sharply in January 

Cornwall Insight forecasts Ofgem’s price cap will rise 16% to £1,999 a year for a typical household from January 2027. From 1 October 2026, the government temporarily removed 5% VAT from domestic electricity bills in Great Britain, which is expected to save a typical household around £45 a year and partly offset higher energy costs. The measure will remain in place until 31 March 2027. Middle East conflict has disrupted gas supplies and shipping, while lower Qatari LNG exports and low European storage have pushed up wholesale prices. 

See our latest article, Why food inflation risks are building, where we explore the range of cost and supply-side pressures that could affect food prices in the months ahead. 

IGD opinion 

The VAT cut will provide some support, but rising wholesale costs mean household energy bills are still expected to increase substantially in January. Attention will therefore turn to whether the Chancellor announces further measures in the Budget, while balancing support for households with fiscal credibility. 

UK population growth slows sharply as migration falls 

The UK's population reached an estimated 69.5 million in mid-2025, an increase of 227,700 people (0.3%) compared with the previous year. This was the lowest rate of population growth since mid-2020, reflecting a sharp fall in net migration.  

Net international migration fell to 222,900, down from 651,700 a year earlier, as immigration declined and emigration increased. Despite this, migration remained the main driver of population growth. Births continued to fall while deaths increased, leaving a natural increase of just 4,900 people. The number of births was the lowest recorded for at least 43 years. 

IGD opinion 

The UK's population is still growing, but the pace of growth has slowed significantly as migration returns towards more typical levels. The data also highlights a longer-term demographic challenge: population growth is now overwhelmingly dependent on migration, with births only marginally exceeding deaths. An ageing population and lower birth rates could have implications for labour availability, consumer demand and public finances over the coming decades. 

Eagle announces action on food and resilience 

Angela Eagle’s Labour Conference address included action on food inequality, farming and climate resilience: 

  • Food inequality: £10 million will launch Good Food Neighbourhoods in 45 communities, supporting affordable produce, community kitchens and pensioner lunch clubs. 

  • Farming: The 25-year roadmap and partnership board will initially target productivity and profitability in horticulture and poultry, aligning with IGD analysis. 

  • Sustainability and resilience: £53 million will fund 500,000 trees and £26 million local nature recovery.  

New "Right to Work" compliance liability hits food supply chains 

The Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act 2025 (Section 48) takes legal effect this week, significantly expanding Right to Work obligations. As of 1 October 2026, businesses must vet casual, agency, zero-hours, and certain gig-economy workers, with civil penalties rising up to £60,000 per illegal worker. 

Long planned under the June 2026 Commencement Regulations, this shift introduces major operational liabilities for agricultural, warehousing, and food retail logistics networks. 

Further detail is set out in the Draft Employer's Guide, the statutory legislation and the policy context. 

IGD opinion 

IGD’s Quiet Crisis report highlighted that reliable labour supply is fundamental to the resilience and productive capacity of the food system. Extending Right to Work checks could add cost and complexity for businesses that rely on flexible and agency labour, particularly where responsibility is shared across supply chains. Businesses should work closely with labour providers to clarify accountability and strengthen recruitment processes. Effective implementation will be important to support compliance without reducing access to the workers needed to maintain food production and distribution. 

Fiscal discipline anchors Healey’s growth plan 

Fiscal discipline will remain at the heart of the government’s growth plans; Chancellor John Healey told the Labour Party Conference. In his speech, he said the resources available to New Labour in the 1990s were “simply not there now”, while promising a return to growth and a “new age of industrialisation” that would strengthen national security. 

A £100 million expansion of the mayor-led Local Apprenticeship Service will help young people into work. The National Wealth Fund will combine public and private finance to support jobs in AI, defence, clean energy and technology, while the Union Learning Fund will be restarted. 

IGD opinion 

The time allocated in the speech to fiscal responsibility suggests that the Chancellor was speaking primarily to investors and bond markets, rather than to Labour party members.  

With the Budget just weeks away, the Chancellor obviously did not wish to reveal too much about policy plans. However, his frank statements around the poor state of government finances may be seen as "rolling the pitch" in preparation for a tough Budget. 

Focus on getting young adults into their first jobs is exciting, however. In this, the Chancellor is working towards the same goals as many UK food and drink businesses. You can see what IGD is doing here.  

Burnham sets out greater role for government 

A greater role for government in essential services, alongside more local influence over economic strategy, was the central economic message from Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s Labour Party Conference speech. The approach could influence costs, investment and decision-making for businesses operating across the UK. Key promises included: 

  • More government control of energy, housing and water, with energy prices brought into line with neighbouring countries over ten years 

  • More economic decision-making devolved from Westminster to local government 

  • Strict fiscal control and reform of the pension triple lock 

  • A new National Care Service, alongside reforms to education and employment focused on young adults 

  • Greater emphasis on innovation and technology 

IGD opinion 

The speech sets out a greater role for government in the economy and builds on previously announced priorities. Some changes will be delivered over the longer term: the pledge to bring UK energy prices into line with neighbouring countries has a ten-year horizon, with water reform expected to proceed at a similar pace. 

For food and drink businesses, lower energy costs could improve competitiveness. The impact on operating costs and investment decisions will depend on how the proposals are implemented. 

Food and drink was not a major focus of the speech. However, its direction is consistent with a greater government role in the food market through measures such as the Farming Roadmap and the Food Strategy, both developed under the previous leadership. 

An important economic consideration will be how devolution works in practice. Greater local control could accelerate development, tailor it to local needs and encourage areas to attract investment. 

For food and drink businesses operating nationally, greater variation in local priorities, incentives or requirements will be an important factor to monitor.

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