IGD’s latest food inflation forecast explains why lower inflation in 2026 may not last, as El Niño, climate impacts, energy costs and policy changes add pressure for 2027 and 2028.
Food inflation has been weaker than expected in 2026, but IGD’s forecast suggests this is a delay rather than a turning point. Stocks, hedging and moderate demand have limited cost pass-through so far, while weather disruption, farm input costs, energy markets and policy measures including Extended Producer Responsibility and the Deposit Return Scheme are expected to shape the outlook.
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IGD’s updated UK food inflation forecasts for 2026, 2027 and H1 2028, including why inflation is expected to be lower in 2026 but higher thereafter.
The five key findings shaping the outlook, including why food inflation has been delayed, not avoided, and why risks remain on the upside.
Insight into how El Niño and climate-related disruption could affect crop yields, quality, availability and food prices across different categories.
An assessment of the role of energy, farm inputs, geopolitical disruption and policy costs, including Extended Producer Responsibility, business rates and the Deposit Return Scheme.
The implications for shoppers, affordability, demand, business margins and investment as another period of higher food inflation approaches.
Practical considerations for retailers, manufacturers and suppliers on resilience, capacity, productivity and supply chain planning.