Bulletin: Eatwell diets could save £211bn in health costs

Eatwell diets could save £211bn in health costs

Transitioning the UK population to an Eatwell Guide (EWG)‑aligned diet could save over £211bn through reduced diet‑related health costs.

The report analyses this transition in detail, investigating the implications for retailer profitability alongside the opportunities for industry, government and consumers to adopt healthier diets.

The blocker for aligning to the EWG, the UK’s dietary guidance, is the significant profit challenge to retailers. Under current business models, transitioning to the EWG would reduce total profit from food. Growth in profits from fruit and vegetables and starchy carbohydrates is not sufficient to offset declines in protein, discretionary foods and dairy.

See our new Eatwell Economics report   

See our new Obesity crisis report which summarises data from across the food system to show the scale and urgency behind the obesity challenge facing the UK. 

Middle East briefing

Project Freedom pauses amid fragile negotiations

US forces launched Project Freedom this week to help civilian vessels exit the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. Only a limited number of ships transited, and on 6 May the US paused the operation, citing progress towards a possible agreement with Iran.

Markets reacted positively: oil prices fell and global equities rose, though prices remain volatile and above pre‑conflict levels. Crucially, shipping disruption has not meaningfully eased. Iran is now openly asserting its role in regulating and controlling access to the Strait, signalling that any reopening would operate under new rules rather than a return to previous free passage. Missile and drone incidents involving the UAE, including near Fujairah, underline ongoing regional risk and continued uncertainty for trade and energy flows.

UK government bond yields hit highs

UK government bond yields have risen to their highest levels in decades, signalling increased investor concern about UK risk and higher borrowing costs.

UK government bond yields – effectively the interest rate paid by the UK government on its loans – reached record highs this week. Peaking at 5.8%, yields on 30-year bonds were briefly the highest for 28 years, whilst yields on 10-year bonds hit an 18 year high of 5.1%.

IGD opinion

Rising bond yields suggest investors now see UK government debt as riskier than that of many peers, with potential consequences for public finances and the wider economy.

Government bonds or gilts are usually considered safe investments, compared with stocks. In return, investors will generally accept low yields, especially for bonds issued by sound governments, which can be relied on to pay on time and in full. Bonds often provide a safe harbour during times of turmoil, when other investments are less favoured.

The UK is not the only government that is seeing bond yields rise. This is not surprising, given geopolitical events. However, the UK does appear to be seeing an especially negative response from investors, with yields rising higher than for peer countries. This shows that investors require a higher risk premium to hold UK government debt.

At the time of writing, yields for 10-year UK bonds had returned to 4.9%, which is higher than for France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands or Spain. This suggests that the UK may be seen as more problematic or less reliable as a borrower than its European neighbours.

Such changes seem esoteric, but they matter to the real world economy. The UK government is heavily in debt, owing at least £2.9tn by the most conservative measure, equal to 97% of GDP (source: ONS).

Debt payments are expected to be approximately £135bn in 2026-27, which would make debt repayment the fourth-biggest element of government spending. However, this depends heavily on assumptions around borrowing costs.

In the Budget issued in November 2025, it was assumed that 10 year gilt rates would be around 4.8%, which is lower than at time of writing. If costs remain above expectations, government finances could be at risk, requiring a policy correction – one that would likely hit both shoppers and businesses.

Who pays for the agri‑food transition?

New guidance from the Transition Finance Council highlights how credible transition plans can unlock capital at scale for a sector under pressure to cut emissions while remaining competitive. The analysis shows why agri‑food, despite being a high‑emitting sector, attracts a disproportionately small share of climate finance, and what investors now expect in return for funding.

For leaders, the message is clear: credible transition finance is becoming critical to move from ambition to delivery, without pushing costs and risks onto farmers and SMEs

See our latest article: Transition finance: Why agri‑food leaders should care now

Pub closures continue

Pub closures accelerated at the start of 2026, with data from the British Beer & Pubs Association (BBPA) showing that 161 UK pubs closed in the first quarter of 2026, roughly two per day, and higher than the same period in 2025.

BBPA has blamed a “disproportionate” tax burden, although some temporary concessions on business rates came into effect ion April 2026.

Sickness and absence

Sickness absence across the UK workforce remains historically low, with ONS data showing that around 2% of working days were lost in 2025 – unchanged from 2024.  This is only 4.5 days per worker, but 148.8m days for the whole UK workforce.

Sickness absence was higher for older workers, public sector workers, those with long term conditions and those in “entry level” occupations. The most common cause of absence was “minor conditions” such as coughs and colds. 

IGD opinion

Given government concern over sickness and the labour market, the conclusion that 2% of working days were lost in 2025 is perhaps surprisingly low.

However, speculatively, it may be that many of those who have long term health conditions are considered to be “inactive” and are outside the workforce entirely.

The number of individuals that are inactivity due to long term sickness rose significantly during Covid and has not yet returned to the previous level.

Impact of US tariff policy on UK trade

UK exports to the US have fallen sharply following the introduction of US tariffs, with a new ONS survey showing UK goods exports dropped by around 25% from April 2025, despite some later concessions.

UK exports of food, beverages and tobacco to the USA have all fallen in the early months of 2026, when compared with the same period in 2025.