Bulletin: Budget tricks or treats?

Budget tricks or treats? 

As Halloween looms, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s expected productivity downgrade casts a shadow over the Budget on 26 November. The Chancellor has hinted at a bigger fiscal buffer to ward off future shocks, but with an expected £22bn hole in public finances, income tax rises are no longer ghost stories, they are real possibilities.  

IGD opinion 

Food and drink businesses will be turning eyes to the Autumn Budget to understand how announcements will affect the cost of doing business, including labour cost and business rates. The IGD Economics team will provide full analysis of the impact of the budget for the food industry. 

Is UK food inflation really higher than the EU? 

Latest IGD analysis shows: 

• The UK is a more expensive place to live than almost every other European country - only Denmark, Luxembourg and Ireland are more costly.  

• In contrast, the UK has some of the cheapest (relative to income) food in Europe - almost every EU nation is more expensive. That is thanks to our grocery sector, which is one of the most competitive in the world. 

• UK food inflation has risen in line with the rest of Europe - in large part because across Europe the cost of commodities, labour and finished food goods have all increased over the last three years.  

See our latest article, Are UK food prices really higher than Europe? 

IGD opinion 

Tackling food inflation in this context - a country where overall food remains relatively cheap and which is facing the same global inflationary pressures as other nations - is really challenging. The only way to protect shoppers from this is to invest in expanding UK production capacity and – where possible – bringing production to the UK. See our recent Viewpoint Special report Driving growth through a thriving food system 

Framework for population diet change webinar 

IGD has announced the speakers for the Framework for Population Diet Change webinar: 

• Hannah Daley, Head of Healthy Sustainable Diets at IGD 

• Oonagh Turnbull, Head of Health & Sustainable Diets Campaigns at Tesco 

• Rebecca Tobi, Head of Food Business Transformation at The Food Foundation 

• Laura Jacobson, Retail Futures Senior Partner at IGD 

The new framework has been launched to help businesses align with the Eatwell Guide and deliver healthier, more sustainable diets at scale. 

Register for the webinar here to explore the framework and hear from IGD experts in a live Q&A. 

GLP1s in Wales 

People awaiting time-sensitive surgery, organ transplants, or fertility treatment in Wales can now access tirzepatide (Mounjaro) via the NHS. The move aims to improve treatment outcomes and follows NICE approval. Broader rollout is planned as demand grows. 

Ofgem launches energy debt reset plan 

Ofgem has unveiled a plan to tackle £4.4bn in energy debt, including a proposed Debt Relief Scheme that could write off up to £500m for 195,000 customers. The scheme aims to protect vulnerable households and reform how energy debt is managed. Changes to occupier billing and smart meter support are also being trialled