Morrisons returns to growth as heatwaves and the World Cup boosted shopping

Growth returns as inflation eases 

The latest grocery market data on UK retailers from Worldpanel by Numerator highlight the UK grocery market entering a new phase. Grocery sales accelerated by 3.3% in the four weeks to 12 July, while grocery inflation eased to 2.6%. At the same time, a combination of heatwaves and a packed sport schedule encouraged a higher frequency of shopping.  

The latest results point to changing shopper priorities, evolving channel dynamics and increasing opportunities for retailers that can successfully balance value, convenience and tapping into occasion-based demand.  

Summer of sun and sport 

July’s performance was shaped by the heat and the World Cup. This dual combination drove shoppers to make 497 million trips to grocery stores over the four weeks, the highest level recorded since March 2020.  

More importantly, the results show that events and occasions can influence shopper behaviour rapidly. Retailers that can anticipate demand by forecasting alongside weather and major events have a clear opportunity to build larger basket sizes and incremental spend.  

Looking ahead, retailers should expect occasion-based shopping to remain an increasingly important growth driver. As shoppers continue to seek affordable ways to socialise and celebrate, retailers are positioned to capture this spend that would otherwise go to Away From Home channels. The challenge is identifying the occasions and acting quickly and relevantly. Retailers who can rapidly adapt ranges and highlight seasonal are best placed to benefit from weather events and global occasions. 

Inflation eases, but value remains crucial 

For shoppers, the ease in inflation is a welcome change. The drop to 2.6% inflation is the fifth consecutive month of lower inflation, reducing pressure on household budgets. This easing does not signal the end of value led shopping, shoppers have become adjusted to higher prices and stricter budgets which is likely to persist regardless of inflation.  

However, the amount spent on groceries per household is still up £156 in the last 12 months, underlining the important reality that affordability is a primary focus for shoppers that will not be changing anytime soon. Retailers need to consider that generic value messaging is everywhere, and as inflation moderates, these retailers will need to demonstrate value in different ways to gain and maintain shoppers. 

Brands take back the baton 

One of the notable figures from the latest data was branded products returning to stronger growth than private label. Branded sales led with an increase of 5.5% with private label growing 4.0%. This is the first instance of brands outgrowing private label since summer 2025. 

The strongest branded growth came from soft drinks, confectionary, and ice cream. All categories where impulse purchasing and enjoyment play a significant role.  

As inflationary pressure eases, some shoppers appear more willing to return to trusted brands, particularly in categories where differentiation is clear and where purchases are linked to rewards or social occasions. However, this is not a shift away from private label. Instead, it signals selectivity based on impulse and emotion favouring brands for certain missions. 

For retailers, this reinforces the need for balance between. Private label holds its place as critical to value perception and price benchmarking, but brand availability is needed to drive volumes at the same time. 

Convenience benefits from occasion-based missions 

The data also revealed a significant increase in convenience shopping, with an additional seven million trips to convenience stores compared to last year.  

Summer weather and major sporting events no doubt amplified this growth, with shoppers opting for frequent and smaller shopping trips.  

For retailers, convenience should not be considered solely a format of stores, but rather a means to get products as fast and frictionless as possible. Convenience stores also play a solid role in online fulfilment and rapid delivery, as shoppers value speed more and more.  

As shoppers continue to prioritise time as we as value, retailers who invest in local stores, digital convenience and omnichannel experience are likely to fare better with the changes in shopper behaviour.

Lidl leads share gains as Morrisons returns to growth 

Among the retailers, Lidl delivered the strongest gain in market share, adding 0.5% to its share and remaining consistent at a solid sales growth of 8.6%. Sales at Ocado were up by 14.1%, but this month was not the fastest growing grocery retailer. M&S took the position as fastest growing retailer, recording a major 16.0% growth in grocery-only sales in the four weeks. 

Morrisons saw a return to share growth, increasing by 0.1% to reach 8.5% market share with sales increasing by 3.5% year-on-year. Co-op saw growth after months of negative growth with an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, gaining 0.2% to reach 5.4% market share.  

Sainsbury’s grew its market share from 15.1% to 15.2% with sales growing by 2.8%. Tesco’s sales were up 1.7% with a market share of 27.9%. 

Asda saw another month of negative sales growth, down 1.1%. This negative growth however is not as significant as in previous months, signalling a slight upturn for the business. Its market share stands at 11.5%.  

Aldi again saw minimal sales growth of 0.7%, growing behind the market with a market share of 10.8%.  

Iceland and Waitrose maintained market share at 2.2% and 4.4% respectively. With Iceland growing sales by 2.3%, and Waitrose grew at 2.5%. Both grew behind the market and below grocery inflation levels.  

The outlook for H2 

Overall, the latest results reinforce that grocery growth is increasingly being driven by shopper missions rather than inflation alone. While value remains critical, retailers must also focus on convenience, relevance and occasion-based execution. The success of Lidl, M&S, Ocado and Morrisons shows that growth can come through various channels in many forms, but those adapting and anticipating shopper needs are best suited to grow.