UK harvest woes: Food inflation and security impact

Harvest 2025, the driest spring and hottest summer on record

Following the driest spring on record and what is expected to be confirmed as the hottest summer, much of the UK harvest has been cut.

UK harvests for key crops began early in 2025 and are approaching completion.

Given the dry weather, yields across the UK are very variable, with a large number of farmers reporting their worst harvest in recent years.

At a national average, 2025 yields are a little below recent averages at 7.3 tonnes per hectare. Quality is likewise variable, for both milling and feed wheat.

At a system level and for farm businesses, issues with the lower-than-average wheat yield may be offset by slightly higher areas planted in 2025 versus 2024.

It is important to note that 2024 was also a challenging year for arable growers. There was a 20% fall in wheat production in 2024, a shortfall that had to be filled by imports. It is likely that a similar solution will be needed this year.

The barley harvest is running a little later. Yields have again seen significant variability but are estimated to be around 1% below the five-year average. There have been reports of greater challenges for producers in the north. Barley plantings are down slightly, year-on-year.

Yields for oilseed rape have held up well, but the area planted has fallen sharply in recent years, possibly due to a combination of weather, production cost and changing subsidy frameworks. 2025 plantings were down 19% on 2024.

The picture in horticulture, is similarly variable. Some crops (e.g. salads, and leafy vegetables) are highly vulnerable to drought. Anecdotal evidence suggests severe impact for some crops, particularly irrigated in-field crops. This, at the current stage, is not being picked up in wholesale markets. Prices, so far, remain in-line with last year. 

Other crops, such as root vegetables and top fruit are more able to resist the effect of drought, but UK production is in long-term decline.

What this means for food inflation

It is perfectly normal for crop yields and quality to be impacted by weather and other natural forces such as disease and for food prices to fluctuate in response.

However, extreme climate events are becoming increasingly frequent, and when combined with rising demand, they are likely to make food prices more volatile and harder to predict.

Given the challenging weather conditions seen in 2025 across the UK and beyond, consumers should be prepared for the likelihood of higher food prices.

In July 2025, food and drink prices were up 4.9% year-on-year, with the rate accelerating for about a year, even with harvests incomplete.

With consumers already under pressure, the trend is concerning but as of July 2025, things seem to be under control.

The current food inflation rate is in-line with IGD forecasts issued in July, which suggested food inflation averaging 3.5 - 5.0% over 2025.

However, recent evidence suggests food inflation may reach the upper end of this range, with meat, beverages and confectionery being the biggest drivers. Fresh produce may also face pressure, especially where cross-border trade is limited.

With climate risk and price volatility increasing, inflation forecasting is becoming more difficult. IGD will issue a further inflation forecast in January 2026.

Strengthening climate resilience

Climate change is now the top threat to the UK food system, as highlighted in our report, "How resilient is your business?". Recent extreme weather - heat following record rainfall - underscores the risks facing UK food production. This growing season should act as a turning point for the UK food system.

The warming climate demands that businesses prioritise climate resilience and build it into their long-term strategies. As the UK becomes permanently warmer, risks intensify, with more frequent and severe events like droughts and heavy rainfall.

Businesses should start by modelling climate exposure across their supply chains. This approach will reveal vulnerabilities, highlight single points of failure, and help inform future sourcing decisions.

Future of the UK Food System

This strategic thinking is not just for individual companies, it matters for the whole food system. That’s why IGD launched the UK’s first food system climate model and analysis at the Future of the UK Food System conference on 1 October 2025.

Our work modelled and financially quantified the impacts of physical climate risk on both imported and homegrown commodities.

Register your interest for 2026

Be among the first to hear updates on our upcoming Future of the UK Food System 2026 conference. We’ll be sharing fresh insights from our climate model and bringing together leading voices from across the industry. Stay informed and be part of shaping the future.