Bulletin: Nearly one million young people NEET

NEET numbers fall below one million, but remain elevated 

The latest ONS data shows 981,000 young people aged 16-24 were not in education, employment or training (NEET) in April-June 2026, equivalent to 13.0% of all young people. This is 30,000 lower than the previous quarter, but 30,000 higher than a year ago, suggesting the longer-term trend remains one of rising youth disengagement. Despite the quarterly improvement, NEET numbers remain close to historic highs, underlining the scale of the UK's workforce challenge. 

IGD opinion

The challenge of NEETs remains high on the policy agenda, with the final report from the Alan Milburn review expected this autumn. For food and consumer goods businesses, nearly one million young people remain outside work and education while labour shortages persist. This represents both a workforce challenge and an opportunity to build future talent pipelines. Through initiatives such as IGD's Feeding Britain's Future, employers are helping young people gain workplace experience, build confidence, and better understand career opportunities across the food system. 

El Niño risks could affect food production into 2027 

Sea surface temperatures have hit an all-time high, raising concerns that the current El Niño event could become one of the strongest on record. Global average sea surface temperature, outside the Polar regions, reached 21.1°C on 22 August, according to Copernicus, the European climate change service, surpassing the previous record of 21.09°C. 

IGD opinion 

 While UK weather appears to be cooling at present, the El Nino event is still developing. Sea surface temperatures in the key Eastern Tropical Pacific region are already around 2.6°C  above average, and some forecasters suggest they could rise as high as 4.0°C above average. 

In the UK it typically brings stormy, wet weather in autumn and early winter, followed by colder, drier conditions later in the season. 

These weather patterns can damage crops, disrupt agricultural production, and increase supply chain pressures. As a result, the economic and commercial impacts of El Niño could extend well into 2027, despite food inflation easing in the short term. 

Energy price cap rise adds to winter cost pressures 

Household energy costs are set to rise further this winter, adding pressure to consumer budgets. Ofgem has announced that the energy price cap will increase by 4% from 1 October, taking the annual bill for a typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit from £1,663 to £1,723. The £60 rise is mainly driven by higher wholesale gas prices, despite the removal of VAT from domestic electricity bills. 

Bills could rise again at the start of next year. Cornwall Insight forecasts that the cap could reach £1,872 for January to March 2027, around £149 above the October level. The forecast remains uncertain and will depend largely on wholesale energy markets before Ofgem confirms the January cap in November. 

IGD opinion 

Consumer demand has been dampened by repeated pressure on household budgets over recent years. History suggests that when essential costs such as energy rise, shoppers look for more ways to curb spending elsewhere, including on food, reinforcing the focus on value and careful budgeting. 

Building stronger talent pipelines through progression and retention 

Food businesses need to focus on progression and retention, not just recruitment, to build a more resilient workforce. Women account for 34% of the global food manufacturing workforce, but representation falls to 27% at first-line manager level and just 6% at CEO level. The gap between leading and lagging organisations shows that these outcomes are not inevitable: clearer career pathways, flexible role design and greater accountability can help businesses retain and develop talent. 

Food businesses are increasingly taking action to strengthen talent pipelines. Recent initiatives from companies including Morrisons and Sainsbury's highlight growing investment in apprenticeships, work experience and early-career pathways as employers seek to attract, retain and develop the workforce needed for the future. 

See the Building stronger talent pipelines article for more detail and practical actions businesses can take.