Including NEW food inflation forecasts, job vacancies, school food standards, business rates, pensions, and food safety.
IGD warns food inflation pressures are building
Food inflation has stabilised after a sustained period of decline, with the latest ONS data showing food and drink inflation unchanged at 1.3% in August.
IGD's latest forecast expects food inflation to average 2.9-3.9% in 2026 before rising to 5.6-6.6% in 2027 as cost pressures build across the food system. Key risks include energy market volatility, adverse weather, supply chain disruption, and geopolitical tensions.
Latest ONS data also shows that all-items inflation rose from 2.9% to 3.1% in August, driven largely by higher transport and energy-related costs.
Read IGD's latest free Viewpoint report, Food inflation pressures ahead.
School food standards create new opportunities for fruit, veg and pulses
Major changes to school food standards in England will increase the focus on fruit and veg, fibre, whole grains, beans, and pulses in school meals.
Key changes include:
Less processed meat, sugar, and desserts on school menus
Beans and pulses are now counted as a protein source, providing more opportunities for them to feature in school meals
Schools appointing a lead governor with responsibility for school food
Schools publishing their school food policy and menus online
A national monitoring system being developed to provide information for Ofsted inspections, although food will not form a formal part of inspections
Most of these changes will come into effect at the start of the 2027 school year.
Job vacancies still contracting
The UK labour market is continuing to cool, with unfilled vacancies falling to around 702,000 in June to August 2026, the lowest level for around five years, according to ONS data.
SMEs saw the greatest reduction in vacancies - the largest businesses have seen demand for workers increase.
Triple lock set to boost pensioner incomes, but fiscal pressures grow
Pensioner incomes are likely to receive an above-inflation boost next year, helping to support spending power among older consumers. Average weekly wages rose 3.9% year-on-year in July, making wage growth the strongest of the three Triple Lock measures currently used to uprate the State Pension.
If the Triple Lock remains in place, wage growth would point to a 3.9% rise in the State Pension from April 2027. With the full State Pension currently at £241 per week, this would lift payments to around £250 a week.
This would represent a real-terms increase in income, but it would also push annual State Pension income close to, or above, the current Income Tax threshold of £12,570 per year.
A £9 per week increase may look modest for an individual pensioner, but the aggregate impact is substantial. With more than 13m pensioners in the UK, the cost compounds over time, especially as the "dependency ratio" shifts.
IGD opinion
The Triple Lock has helped protect pensioner incomes and shopper spending power, but it also creates a growing fiscal challenge. In 2026-27, the State Pension is expected to cost around £154bn - about the same as spending on Defence and Education combined.
This does not include the cost of other age-related benefits (e.g. Winter Fuel payments), occupational pensions for former government employees or health expenditure on age-related illnesses.
Introduced by the Coalition government in 2010, the Triple Lock means the State Pension rises each year by whichever is highest: average wage growth, all-items CPI inflation or 2.5%. This helps maintain the real value of the State Pension and protect older shoppers' spending power.
The Triple Lock has largely been a social policy success, although pensioner poverty remains a concern. Around 21% of single pensioners are still in poverty, according to DWP, along with 12% of pensioner couples, but these numbers have been stable for some time.
With government finances under increasing pressure, the cost of the state pension is causing considerable concern. There are also questions of fairness to be considered. Many workers will not see their wages rise as fast as pensions for retired people.
However, pensioners form a large voting bloc with a common interest, making it very difficult for any government to make cuts or changes to the pension.
The Labour government has pledged to retain the Triple Lock until 2029. However, pressure on the public finances means future governments may continue to face difficult choices over how the policy is funded.
One option would be to keep the income tax threshold at its current level, which would allow the Chancellor to recover part of the increase through tax over time.
Welsh business rates cut for hospitality and leisure
Hospitality and leisure venues across Wales are set to receive a permanent 30% business rates cut from 1 April 2027, under plans announced by the Welsh Government. The support will apply to eligible small and medium-sized properties with a rateable value below £51,000, giving businesses greater certainty to plan and invest.
Applies to pubs, restaurants, cafés, hotels, gyms, cinemas, and other venues
Replaces the current 15% temporary relief for food and drink hospitality
Funded by a small increase for the highest-value properties in Wales
FSA plans food safety regulation reforms
The FSA Board has backed plans to design reforms to the food safety system under its Future of Food Regulation programme. The proposals aim to strengthen local delivery, give local authority food teams better tools, improve food business registration and introduce a more consistent national approach for the largest food businesses. The FSA says the reforms are needed as food buying, selling and production continue to change, with ministers to make final decisions on the proposals.