Including new food inflation forecasts, work experience, Feeding Britain's Future, workplace ill health, GDP, retail and away from home purchasing, El Niño and government borrowing.
Food price volatility is rising
Food inflation may look calm on the surface, but pressures are building beneath the food system. Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Tim O’Malley of Nationwide Produce highlighted how rising farmgate prices for vegetables can take time to reach shoppers:
IGD’s latest analysis shows why food price inflation is becoming more volatile: successive shocks from weather, energy, geopolitics, and policy are changing the mix and timing of cost pressures. For businesses, the priority is to monitor emerging risks, test plausible scenarios and build resilience alongside efficiency.
Read the article here Food price volatility is rising.
Vocational GCSEs open new routes into food and drink careers
The Department for Education has announced new Vocational GCSEs and plans to create 200,000 additional work experience placements, helping more young people connect classroom learning with future careers. The qualifications will sit alongside traditional GCSEs.
IGD Chief Executive Sarah Bradbury says food and drink is “a place to build their future” for young people. Feeding Britain’s Future will help more young people access high-quality, modern work experience, while making it easier for employers across the food system to take part.
Feeding Britain’s Future campaign 28 Sept – 1 Oct
Every year, IGD aims to create a collective voice around workforce and people by coordinating a LinkedIn ‘thunderclap’ moment for businesses across the food system.
Work experience is a key intervention as part of our cross-industry Feeding Britain’s Future movement and we want to use this year’s thunderclap to start a powerful conversation about the role work experience can play in helping young people understand, explore, and choose careers in food and drink. Get involved: download the Feeding Britain’s Future toolkit.
Government targets cultural change around workplace ill health
The government’s Keep Britain Working plan responds to Sir Charlie Mayfield’s independent report, calling for earlier intervention and stronger support to prevent ill health pushing people out of employment. Around 2.8 million working-age people are economically inactive due to ill health.
IGD opinion
Alongside the Mayfield report, we are also expecting the Milburn Review, the final output of which will be published soon. The Milburn Review explores ways of ensuring that young adults launch successfully into the workplace.
IGD has focused its' workforce activities on this opportunity, bringing together food and drink employers to help young people develop employability skills and explore careers in the food system.
Family Food data offers insight into the impact of food inflation
Defra’s latest Family Food report provides new evidence on household purchasing during a period of elevated food inflation:
Average spending on all food and drink reached £50.03 per person per week in 2025, up 6.0% on the previous year
However, the bulk of this gain was delivered by inflation
In "real terms", with inflation accounted for, the increase was only 2.7%
Average spending on food to eat at-home was £37.34, up 0.6% in real terms
Average spending on food to eat away-from home was £12.69, up 9.2% in real terms
Government borrowing running ahead of forecasts
Government borrowing reached £18.3bn in August 2026, exceeding forecasts, according to the latest data from the ONS. Total government debt now stands at £2,986bn, £79bn higher than a year ago and equivalent to around 94% of GDP.
IGD opinion
These figures underline the difficult choices facing the Chancellor ahead of the Budget on 28 October. Political pressure to increase spending will need to be balanced against reassuring investors that the public finances remain sustainable.
This is not only a political choice but an economic decision with direct implications for businesses and households. Government borrowing competes for investment and can contribute to higher financing costs across the economy. Persistently high debt can therefore limit fiscal flexibility and weigh on wider economic growth.
OECD upgrades 2026 UK growth but trims 2027 outlook
A new Interim Economic Outlook report from OECD has slightly reduced the GDP growth forecast for the UK. Growth in 2027 is now expected to be 1.0%, rather than the 1.1% suggested in June, with higher interest rates expected to weigh on growth. The forecast for 2026 was revised marginally upward, however, from 0.9% to 1.1%, reflecting a slight upturn in domestic demand.
IGD opinion
Whether UK growth next year is 1.0% or 1.1% really makes little difference - neither is anywhere adequate to support the government's fiscal objectives.
The most interesting part of this report is the OECD's understanding of risk globally. The most important risk factor is geopolitics, especially war in the Middle East. However, the possibility of an AI "bubble burst" event is also noted, along with increasing concerns over government debt.
El Niño highlights growing human and food system risks
The University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab projects that the current “Super El Niño” could cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally during its first nine months. The estimate excludes wider impacts from drought, flooding, and wildfires, underlining the scale of the climate and resilience challenge.
IGD opinion
El Niño is also one of the biggest risks in IGD’s latest food inflation forecast. Its impacts will vary by region and commodity, so businesses should identify critical sourcing dependencies and test plausible scenarios, from changes in rainfall and temperature to disruption affecting yields, quality, and availability. Building options into sourcing and contingency plans can help businesses respond earlier and strengthen resilience. Read more: Food price volatility is rising.