We forecast the European grocery retail market will add €377.6 billion in sales to reach €2,289 billion by 2022. The dynamic economies of Central and Eastern Europe will drive growth in the region.
Jon Wright, our head of retail insight, explores the key markets and the reasons behind their growth.
Poland, Romania and Russia among strongest performers
The grocery retail markets of Poland, Romania and Russia are expected to enjoy strong growth to 2022. They’ll benefit from greater liberalisation and integration with other European countries.
With Europe’s population forecast to remain steady to 2022, real growth is set to account for 23.9% of total sales uplift for the region. Growth in consumer spend will account for much of this.
Source: IGD Research
Key findings from our European grocery forecasts to 2022
- Europe’s grocery retail market will grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% between 2017 to 2022
- The European grocery market will add €377.6 billion to the global market and will be worth €2,289 billion by 2022
- Turkey, Russia and the UK will drive 51% of Europe’s grocery retail sales growth between 2017 and 2022
- Europe will account for 16% of global grocery retail sales growth for the five years to 2022
Europe will benefit from increase in shopper spend
After Asia, Europe is set to benefit from the biggest increase in shopper spend to 2022, however, we’re predicting mixed growth for the top five grocery markets. Turkey is forecast to experience the most dynamic sales growth in Europe, with rising shopping spending driving much of real growth.
Europe’s other largest grocery retail markets, including Germany, France and the UK, will experience a slower pace of expansion. The German grocery retail market will be limited by low population growth, in addition to shoppers being more cautious with their spending. Shoppers in the UK are facing higher inflation, which is eroding wage increases, and therefore creating a more cautious attitude to spending.
Central and Eastern Europe: positive outlook despite inflation
The top five markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) face an inflationary outlook to 2022, but there are pockets of real growth in the region where we forecast a rise in shopper spending, for example in Romania. However, the overall outlook is very positive. Rising household spending will drive real growth across the region as the economy is boosted by higher employment rates and stable wages.
The grocery retail market in CEE continues to develop at pace with retailers investing in their stores to encourage shoppers to visit more frequently and to stay for longer periods of time. New food courts with snack and meal options are popping up in larger stores, helping to attract new shoppers and extend the length of their stay. Retailers are also experimenting with an array of new technologies all aimed at making shopping easier and quicker for shoppers.
Western Europe: shopper spending to underpin real growth
Inflation is set to be a major factor in driving total sales in the Western Europe grocery retail market to 2022. Rising shopper spending will underpin real growth for most countries as the economies of France, Italy and Spain continue to recover and have a strengthening outlook. This will boost shopper confidence and spending.
Retailers and manufacturers in Western Europe will continue to look for new ways to find growth. They’ll focus on the growing demand for niche products or flavours including an increase in organic, gluten-free and free from products. There’ll also be an increased focus on convenience stores, including opening new locations and maximising ranges, and on making online profitable in an increasingly competitive marketplace.
Top 20 European grocery markets in 2022
CAGR calculated from market values in EUR at 2017 exchange rates and in nominal terms
Healthy eating is a key trend in retail and the out-of-home sector, read IGD’s latest research: Eating Well and Eating Out
- IGD defines the grocery retail market as all food, drink and non-food products (e.g. health and beauty, pet care, clothing, DIY) sold through all retail outlets selling predominantly food in a given country. This definition includes modern retail formats, such as supermarkets and hypermarkets, and traditional retail formats such as open-air markets and traditional food stores such as bakers. It excludes wholesale and foodservice formats and drugstores/pharmacies
- IGD market sizes are 'top down', derived from national statistical bodies wherever possible. In all other cases, our market sizes represent IGD estimates and are based on a consistent methodology and knowledge of local markets
- The figures represent our base scenario and assume a good level of international political and economic stability
- All figures correct at time of going to press
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