How the Middle East conflict is impacting shopper confidence
12 May 2026Shopper confidence is weak as they face the rising costs, but do they understand what's to come?
Shopper confidence has taken a noticeable turn for the worse in light of the Middle East conflict. Most obviously, shoppers have seen the jump in petrol prices, with 68% of the 34% anticipating being worse off in the year ahead citing it as a reason for this. This is compared to 41% who said the same only in January.
But petrol prices are only one of shoppers’ extensive worries. Of the 34% expecting to be worse of, 94% cited food prices as a reason for this with energy bills following closely behind at 86%, despite the energy price cap coming down.
Divided shoppers
As is often the case, the impact of price rises and consequent worries over the future is not felt evenly. Those in lower income households are likely to have felt the impact of petrol price rises almost immediately with many already feeling at their limit financially. Those on a higher income, however, are feeling more confident, perhaps with one eye on the news surrounding rising interest rates and the benefit this could have on their savings.
Are shoppers prepared for what’s ahead?
Despite seeing some easing in the conflict, the impact is yet to be fully felt. The lag in the impact on energy and food prices is something many shoppers are unaware of, only focusing on what is right in front of them.
In May, the ShopperVista team spoke to shoppers about their economic outlook. We found that many shoppers hoped prices wouldn’t rise further but also acknowledged that once prices rise, they were unlikely to come back down. There was a clear gap in knowledge when it came to joining the dots between fuel, energy and food prices suggesting any future prices rises may come as a shock if they are not warned.
What does this mean?
We expect shoppers to withhold most discretionary spending until there is a more certain geopolitical landscape. For some shoppers, they will cut back their spending on food and groceries to compensate for rising petrol prices in the immediate term. Looking further ahead, shoppers will be looking to both Government and retailers to help them with the rising cost-of-living. Any cost rises passed onto shoppers will need to be clearly communicated to help justify why prices are rising without losing trust.
For an up-to-date view on shopper confidence, ShopperVista subscribers can access the latest monthly headlines report.
For a deep-dive on shoppers’ outlook including how it will impact their shopper behaviour and category choices, ShopperVista subscribers can read our outlook report coming on the 28th May.