Bulletin: Thriving in a volatile world report

Today, IGD launched Thriving in a volatile world, our third annual assessment of resilience in the UK food system. 

Our IGD Resilience survey found that 91% of experts believe risk has increased over the past 12 months, while geopolitics was ranked as the greatest risk over the next five years.  

IGD opinion

Disruption can no longer be treated as an exception. Businesses need to understand critical dependencies, use scenario planning and build resilience into core strategy, balancing efficiency with greater visibility, flexibility and diversity of supply. 

Climate and nature will define future resilience 

Climate change ranked as the second greatest risk in 2026, but IGD believes it presents the biggest long-term challenge because it amplifies existing pressures across food production, water, nature, infrastructure and food safety. Last year alone, heat and drought cost UK arable farmers more than £800 million, while 78% of farmers reported more frequent severe weather. 

IGD opinion

The challenge is no longer simply recognising climate risk but adapting quickly enough. IGD believes isolated initiatives will not be sufficient. Businesses and government need a coordinated, whole-system approach that combines investment in water, infrastructure, climate adaptation and ecosystem services.  

Profitability underpins resilience 

Food businesses need to invest in adaptation, technology, skills and stronger supply chains at a time when margins remain extremely constrained. IGD research found that a basket of nine everyday products costing £20.24 generated just 29p in total profit, shared across all participants in the supply chain.  

IGD opinion

Low profitability weakens the system’s ability to prepare for, absorb and recover from shocks. Improving productivity and creating the right conditions for long term investment will be critical to strengthening resilience while protecting affordability and supporting future growth. 

Labour shortages are becoming a structural weakness 

The food system employs 4.1 million people, equivalent to one in eight UK workers, yet recruitment and retention remain persistent challenges. Simultaneously, the workforce needs new digital, engineering, robotics and technical skills to adopt technology and respond to emerging risks.  

IGD opinion

Labour shortages have developed beyond a recruitment problem into a wider resilience challenge. Without a stronger talent pipeline and greater investment in existing employees, the system could face reduced operational capacity, higher costs and less flexibility during disruption. A national workforce strategy for food and drink would help align industry and government action. 

Technology will increase capability and risk 

Technology can improve productivity, traceability and supply chain visibility, helping businesses identify vulnerabilities earlier. However, greater connectivity also creates new points of exposure. Around 82% of businesses experience a cyber incident each year, while AI is making attacks easier to execute and harder to defend against.  

IGD opinion

Cyber security must be treated as a business wide and system level resilience issue, rather than solely an IT responsibility. Businesses need to strengthen preparedness across their own operations and supply chains, while greater collaboration will be required to ensure smaller organisations and shared service providers do not become weak points in an increasingly connected system.