Including drought, food inflation, resilience, weather, growth, the Eatwell Guide and protein.
Drought increases risks to food inflation
The NFU has warned that drought conditions are increasing pressure on food production as 71% of England is now classified as being in drought. The organisation says dry conditions are making farming more difficult, risky, and costly, and is calling for greater investment in water resilience, including on-farm storage and more flexible abstraction arrangements. The latest drought update follows England's driest July on record and comes as water availability, crop yields and production costs face increasing pressure across parts of the food system.
Read our latest article, Drought and food inflation explainer
IGD opinion
Drought is unlikely to affect all products equally, but it can increase risks to the cost, quality and availability of exposed categories, particularly fresh produce. The immediate impact is more likely to be category-level volatility rather than a uniform rise in headline food inflation.
UK on course for warmest summer on record
The UK is increasingly likely to record its warmest summer on record, according to the Met Office. Average UK temperatures between 1 June and 10 August were 1.88°C above the 1991-2020 average, with only near-average conditions needed through the remainder of August for a new record to be set. The update follows a summer characterised by repeated heatwaves and exceptionally high temperatures across much of the country. For businesses, it provides another reminder that extreme weather is becoming a more frequent feature of the UK's operating environment.
See our latest resilience report: Thriving in a volatile world to understand how the UK food system can adapt, compete, and grow.
IGD opinion
This is about more than a single hot summer. Consecutive years of record-breaking temperatures are increasing pressure on food production, water resources, infrastructure, and supply chains. Businesses should increasingly view weather volatility as a strategic risk requiring longer-term adaptation and resilience planning.
The Eatwell Guide's protein category problem
Protein carries thin margins but drives outsized profit through volume, price, and footfall. IGD's Eatwell Economics report finds that aligning UK diets with the Eatwell Guide would reduce protein consumption by 40%, a shift that growth in fish, pulses and meat alternatives cannot fully offset.
See our latest article The Eatwell Guide’s protein category problem
IGD opinion
The exposure isn't evenly spread: meat likely needs to fall, fish needs to roughly double, and pulses need to grow, yet no consistent model exists across government and industry for how that plays out by sub-category. Until a universal reference diet is agreed, possibly through an update to the government’s dietary guidance, businesses are left modelling the transition largely on their own assumptions.
UK growth slows in the second quarter
The UK economy grew by 0.4% in Q2 2026, down from 0.6% in Q1, according to the ONS. Services increased by 0.5% and construction by 0.3%, while production was flat. GDP was 1.2% higher than a year earlier. However, the Bank of England expects momentum to weaken in the second half of 2026, with its latest projections suggesting growth will remain subdued as higher energy prices, elevated borrowing costs, and a softer labour market weigh on activity.
However, risks to the outlook remain significant. Media reports this week suggest Treasury officials have modelled a scenario in which prolonged disruption in the Middle East slows UK growth to 0.3% in 2027, highlighting the potential impact of higher energy prices and supply chain disruption.
IGD opinion
The economy continues to expand, but the bigger issue is the UK's long-term downshift in growth. IGD analysis finds average annual growth has fallen from 2.8% in 1998-2007 to around 1.2% since 2008. Recent reports of Treasury scenario modelling linked to Middle East disruption are a reminder that growth remains vulnerable to external shocks. For the food system, building productivity and resilience is increasingly important in a world where geopolitical and climate risks can quickly alter the outlook.