Seven predictions for Christmas buying behaviours in 2026

In 2025, our pre-Christmas shopper research suggested a ‘cautious Christmas’, with just under half of people surveyed worried about the event’s cost.  

Our ShopperVista shopper confidence fell to -3 in September, reflecting expectations of rising food prices and a worse outlook for the year ahead. This is likely to keep them ‘cautious’ or ‘controlled’ for Christmas 2026 and lead to modest nominal growth, limited volume growth, and a polarisation between shopper groups balancing everyday value and affordable indulgence.  

In this article, we combine insights from our three services, Retail Analysis, ShopperVista, and Away From Home, to offer seven predictions for Christmas 2026.

1. Festive grocery value will rise, but volumes will be broadly flat

UK grocery retailers should expect a modest nominal increase in food-and-drink sales in the build-up to Christmas, with volumes around flat or slightly down. In 2026, Numerator’s read of the grocery market* saw sales grow 3.5% in the 12 weeks to 28 December 2025, with retailers’ results underlining the limited volume growth. Though food inflation is currently relatively low, the level of inflation will likely rise before Christmas, meaning retailers will again have to use value mechanics and promotional discounts to offset shopper budget changes and drive sales. This will create conditions similar to 2025, with value being a focus for retailers to attract shoppers, lowering margins and flattening volumes.

Commercial implication: retailers and suppliers must plan for value growth rather than volume growth, while all parties will need to ensure and protect availability on core festive lines, while looking to drive additional spending from higher-income consumers with the addition of NPD and on-trend products.

_{* Worldpanel by Numerator, 12 weeks to 28 December 2025. Take-home grocery sales, Great Britain.}

2. More spending will move into the home, with meal solutions likely to benefit 

One potential positive for retailers will be that consumers are expected to swap some pub, restaurant and takeaway occasions with at-home entertaining, buying higher-quality meal solutions and party food ranges that have been launched or enhanced over the course of the year. Alcoholic drink purchases will also move into retail, which will impact wet-led pubs especially.

Retailers’ ongoing investment in their private label ranges and meal solutions will aid this trend. While private label is likely to gain share, premium ranges are expected to gain the most, with 51% of shoppers saying they planned to buy more premium private label this year. This will aid the sales of private label party food ranges, desserts, and centrepieces.

Commercial implication: retailers and suppliers will maximise the opportunity to merchandise and spotlight their ‘restaurant-quality ranges’, which will enable consumers to enjoy the season and entertain friends and family at home for less. Retailers will use mission-focused fixtures to highlight their range of solutions, including full meals, sharing dishes, premium sides and drinks bundles, rather than individual products, to encourage shoppers to buy across categories and increase spending.

3. Christmas baskets will become more polarised: value-focused essentials enhanced with affordable premium products 

Shoppers will aim to save where they can on commodity categories and then reinvest selectively in centrepieces, desserts, party food and drinks. This is likely despite falling confidence, with our shopper research showing that more shoppers, particularly among middle earners, were interested in products’ quality attributes as they looked to boost their wellbeing through occasional indulgences and treat purchases.

Retail channels will benefit from consumers trading down or out of away from home channels, while retailers’ investment in their premium private label ranges will provide new opportunities for shoppers to feel like they are treating themselves and guests. It is also likely that retailers will use fresh vegetables as a loss leader in the last few days before Christmas.

Commercial implication: retailers will need to avoid a one-tier Christmas range, spotlighting opportunities for shoppers to ‘save here, and indulge there’ across categories, with entry price points beside visibly differentiated premium upgrades. Discounters are likely to benefit from shoppers buying essentials in their stores, which will impact other channels. Also, for those shoppers who look to spread the cost of the season, these purchases could be made earlier, which may boost spending in the build-up, but will not be replicated later. This will impact demand planning and be a consideration for how much stock to hold in-store, given the early demand signals that this could produce.

4. Promotions and loyalty mechanics to attract spending in retail and away from home 

Promotions accounted for 33.3% of sales in December 2025, according to data from Worldpanel by Numerator, the highest level since Christmas 2019, as retailers competed to offer shoppers the best value for money. With a similar economic and competitive landscape in 2026, and promotions included in 31.3% of grocery sales in the four weeks to 9 August, the highest level in 2026, it is clear that shoppers will be using all the money-saving tactics available to them. Loyalty programmes will remain a key pillar in this, while Morrisons recent commitment to match prices from all the UK’s main retailers will add to it too.

Away from home operators will mirror this. Mechanics that worked well in 2025 are expected to be repeated this year. Set festive menus, such as two courses for £25, are convenient and help consumers to plan visits and their budgets, while a range of incentives are likely to be offered to secure early bookings, playing on consumers' fear of missing out at the most popular venues and by elevating their experiential nature to encourage group bookings, or by offering complimentary drinks or other items.

Commercial implication: in retail, suppliers will need to reserve investment for mission-specific offers: host bundles, party quantities, and to reward trade-ups, while retailers will need to consider how to incentivise delivery, especially quick commerce solutions. For away from home operators, spotlighting savings early and consistently will be key, while creating opportunities to lock in spending before the Christmas period will help to provide visibility on bookings and ensure revenue for December and into the New Year.

5. Online will outgrow total grocery, with delivery playing a greater role 

In Christmas 2025, Ocado Retail had the fastest growth, with sales up 13.7%, while Tesco and Sainsbury’s also reported double-digit growth, helping online reach a 12.2% market share, according to data from Worldpanel by Numerator. Shoppers booked delivery slots in advance for their main shop missions, supported by in-store visits for discounts, treats and last-minute items. To meet this demand, retailers have already opened their Christmas delivery slots and expanded quick commerce solutions to book in spending where they can. 

Some of the last-minute purchases, in 2026, could move into the quick commerce channel. In 2025, Tesco and Sainsbury’s reported a significant contribution from their quick commerce operations, with the former reporting that Whoosh sales grew 37% in H1 2026/27, covering 75% of UK households, which will likely improve after its partnership with Deliveroo and Uber Eats contributes fully to results. After expanding the service’s coverage and marketing its benefits and availability, shoppers are likely to use it for top-ups of alcohol, snacks and convenience foods in addition to forgotten items. Retailers need to keep an eye on in-demand products in the build-up to Christmas Day, as they may become the must-have items later on.

Delivery could support some away from home sectors, although supporting at home celebrations. This is likely to benefit food sales over drinks, which are expected to go through retail, and support sales from outlets on the delivery aggregators.

Commercial implication: treat online and stores as complementary missions. Online should simplify budgeting, pre-ordering and complete-basket planning; stores should maximise freshness, forgotten essentials, impulse and emergency availability, with quick commerce and delivery supporting the latter missions. Retailers and away from home operators will have to work out how they make their offers stand out on delivery aggregators, maximising their USPs and visibility to attract shoppers’ attention.

6. Away From Home, Christmas will mean fewer visits, but more valuable and memorable ones, with competition from retail rising

For Christmas 2025, more consumers cut the frequency of their visits to away from home outlets. Underlining the desire to seek out memorable occasions, consumers shifted spending to occasions that combined food and drink, with fewer people making drink-only visits.

With affordability an ongoing concern, restaurants were squeezed between more affordable away from home options and retailers’ solutions. These trends are expected to benefit destination pubs, premium casual restaurants that consumers can trade up to, experiential venues, bars and independent operators, and impact mid-tier restaurants once more. The growth of retailers’ private label ranges will also help this trend, providing eye-catching products that consumers are willing to trade down to.

Commercial implication: away from home operators must focus on the value of the occasions they can offer, spotlighting the experiences consumers can enjoy, not just the low prices. This can come through fixed-price menus, added-value drinks, early-booking rewards, group packages and ways to upgrade festive menus easily. This should enable them to compete with retailers’ wider offerings and private label’s growth.

For those brands that can offer something beyond the ‘traditional Christmas meal’, away from home operators should prioritise exclusive flavours, provenance, and gifting formats.

7. Today’s unknowns could still impact Christmas performance for retailers and away from home operators alike 

Despite the wealth of data, there are still opportunities for retailers and away from home operators to be impacted by both known and unknown events. The Autumn Budget on 28 October could impact consumer confidence and lead to some groups cutting their Christmas spending further, which is likely to be exacerbated by the 1 October and widely discussed increase in electricity and gas prices in January 2027. Lower-income groups are leading the decline in financial confidence and are focusing more on saving money, as rising prices will make cost-saving behaviour more of a necessity.

The weather could influence results too. A mild winter could encourage consumers to visit out of home outlets, while a snowy one could impact deliveries and limit quick commerce’s growth and lead to fewer, bigger, main shop missions.

Commercial implication: depending on the timing and type of news coming out and consumers' reaction to it, it is likely that there will be rapid shifts in spending between channels and categories. This could create more polarised spending across income groups, with the uneven economic news impacting and affecting households differently.

Together, these developments could cause demand challenges by bringing spending forward or increasing demand in products that shoppers see as offering them value, and which will last until Christmas. They will require retailers and away from home operators, and their supply chain teams, to remain flexible and be able to react as the changes emerge.