Plan for 2030: new global & regional forecasts

The grocery retail market is changing fast. Are you prepared for what the future will bring?

IGD’s suite of five-year forecast reports reveal how grocery retail markets and channels will evolve across 42 global markets by 2030, helping you prepare for change and identify growth opportunities before your competitors. They include:

1. Global grocery markets growth 2025-2030

2. Global channel forecasts 2025-2030

3. Asia-Pacific channel forecasts 2025-2030

4. European channel forecasts 2025-2030

5. North America channel forecasts 2025-2030

Taken individually or combined, these reports give you the actionable insights to adapt to change, invest smartly, and stay competitive.

Datasets for all 42 markets supplement our findings, empowering you to inspect the detail and uncover possibilities for your business.

Click here to access all five reports and the datasets

Global grocery market: US$12.6 trillion by 2030

We forecast the global grocery market will add US$2.4 trillion in sales over the next five years, although inflation will remain the main driver:

• Asia leads growth, accounting for 36% of global sales by 2030.

• India, USA, and China will drive 42% of global growth.

• Inflation will be the biggest driver of growth in most regions, making value strategies critical.

Download ‘Global grocery markets growth 2025-2030’ 

Non-subscribers can read a summary in the Highlights

Global channel forecasts: online and discount take the lead

Channel dynamics are shifting globally:

• Online is the fastest-growing channel with CAGR 7.6%, gaining +1.3% share by 2030.

• Discount is the only physical channel gaining share (+0.3%), driven by value-seeking shoppers.

• Supermarkets and hypermarkets lose share, despite contributing most net new sales.

• Omnichannel strategies and value formats will define success.

Download ‘Global channel forecasts 2025-2030’

Non-subscribers can read a summary in the Highlights

European channel: discount surges ahead

Europe’s grocery landscape is at a tipping point:

Supermarkets remain #1 (28.7% share), but discount will overtake traditional and close in on supermarkets, rising to 23.6% share.

• Online grows fastest, reaching 4.6% share by 2030.

• Hypermarkets shrink to 10.5%; rejuvenation needed through partnerships and retail media.

• Discounters and online will reshape shopper missions and retailer strategies.

Download ‘European channel forecasts 2025-2030’

Non-subscribers can read a summary in the Highlights

Asia-pacific channel: traditional still rules, but modern makes gains

Asia-Pacific remains dominated by traditional trade, accounting for 72% of additional sales between 2025–2030. However:

• Online growth strongest in Australasia, slower in Asia.

• Convenience grows above average in Asia, flat in Australasia.

• Discount still small, but hotspots include Japan, Australia, and China.

• Urbanisation and digital adoption will accelerate modern trade growth.

Download ‘APAC channel forecasts 2025-2030’

Non-subscribers can read a summary in the Highlights

North America: online acceleration and discount appeal

North America’s grocery market will see significant channel shifts:

• Supermarkets lead (34.2% share), minimal decline.

• Online fastest-growing (CAGR 10.6%), reaching 11.4% share.

• Discount gains share (8.6%), while convenience and hypermarkets decline.

• Omnichannel and value propositions will be critical to winning shopper loyalty.

Download ‘North America channel forecasts 2025-2030’

Non-subscribers can read a summary in the Highlights

Together, these five reports provide a complete global view of grocery retail’s future, covering market growth, channel evolution, and regional dynamics.

Explore all five reports and prepare for the future of grocery retail