Global supermarket and hypermarket sales to hit $3.5tn by 2030 as share falls to 34.3%

IGD forecasts that the global supermarket and hypermarket channel will remain the dominant force in grocery retail with sales reaching US$3.5 trillion by 2030.  

However, a 3% CAGR compared to 4% for the total grocery market will see the channel’s share fall from 36% in 2025 to 34.3% in 2030, with the faster-growing discount and online channels gaining ground. 

Despite losing share, supermarkets and hypermarkets will remain the largest modern grocery channel, generating an additional US$481 billion in sales by 2030, underlining their continuing scale and importance. 

But according to IGD, competing channels are building momentum as digitalisation raises the standard of convenience, choice, and personalisation. 

Discount and online capturing growth 

IGD’s analysis suggests that discount retailers are gaining share by sharpening price perception, improving quality, and tailoring ranges to changing shopper needs, making them increasingly competitive across core grocery missions.  

At the same time, online grocery is eroding one of the large store’s core advantages: choice. Digital channels can now match the breadth of range of even the largest stores, while benefiting from rising demand for convenience, personalisation, and digitalisation.  

Together, these channels are taking a growing share of both stock‑up and top‑up missions, shifting spend away from large format stores, IGD says. 

Lucy Beaumont, Senior Insight Analyst at IGD, commented: “Shoppers are increasingly redirecting spend to channels better aligned to their evolving expectations. Large format retailers must fundamentally rethink how stores create value or risk becoming a large channel with a smaller role in grocery spending.” 

The large store’s role being redefined 

As share declines, IGD expects supermarkets and hypermarkets will increasingly rethink how stores create value. 

IGD claims that the channel’s traditional strengths - scale, range and one‑stop shopping - are no longer sufficient on their own as competing channels replicate or outperform these advantages. 

In response, retailers are shifting towards a more multi-functional store model, using space, infrastructure and services to unlock new sources of growth. 

This includes monetising store assets, embedding retail media, forming partnerships and using stores as fulfilment hubs to support online and rapid delivery.  

At the same time, stores are being redesigned around missions and occasions to drive engagement, increase basket spend, and restore relevance in a more competitive market.  

About IGD’s research 

IGD’s ‘Global supermarket and hypermarket trends 2026’ report provides a comprehensive view of how the channel is evolving. It analyses global and regional growth, channel competition, and how retailers are adapting formats, operating models and store strategies in response to structural change. 

A free sample of the report is available on the IGD website. 

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Notes to editors: 

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3. IGD brings together stakeholders from across the food system, fostering action across on critical challenges across a broad cross section of forums. Through evidence-based insights, credible research, and thought leadership, IGD guides businesses to make informed decisions that not only benefit their operations but also contribute to the collective good of society.  As a charity with a long-standing commitment to the food and grocery industry, IGD does not advocate for any single commercial interest but works towards fostering alignment on shared goals that can have a positive, lasting impact on both the industry and the communities it serves. Its neutrality and impartiality are key to its role in facilitating collaboration, whether through policy development or addressing emerging risks and opportunities. By staying connected to the changing dynamics of the world, IGD ensures that the food system remains robust and sustainable, creating tangible benefits for businesses, consumers and society.