Event review: away from home forecast launch

IGD’s breakfast briefing ‘Driving growth in away from home, 2026-2031’ brought together a data, insight and operator voices, offering a clear but balanced view of a market under pressure - yet still full of opportunity.

While the headline story is one of slower recovery and continued cost pressure, the tone throughout was far from pessimistic. Instead, the discussion focused on how the sector is adapting, where growth is coming from, and what it will take to win in the years ahead.

A market under pressure

The session opened with a comprehensive overview of the UK food and drink market, putting AFH performance into context. Before COVID, eating out accounted for around 43% of total spend, but that share has yet to fully recover - and isn’t expected to in the near term.

Two key dynamics are at play. Ongoing pressure on disposable income continues to limit how often people eat out. At the same time, retailers have significantly raised their game - capturing more eating occasions with strong meal deals, food-to-go ranges and rapid delivery options. Quick commerce in particular is reshaping the competitive set, making it easier than ever to recreate an “eat out” occasion at home.

Looking ahead, growth in value will continue, but much of this will be inflation-led. Meaningful volume recovery isn’t expected until later in the forecast period, reinforcing just how important it is for foodservice operators and suppliers to drive demand, not just rely on price.

Winners, losers and shifting demand

The data makes clear that performance is increasingly uneven across the sector. Quick service restaurants (QSR) continue to gain share, thanks to their ability to deliver on convenience, affordability and increasingly premium experiences.

At the other end, full-service restaurants and pubs remain under pressure, with lower visit frequency and, in some cases, ongoing site closures impacting performance. The mid-market, in particular, feels squeezed - neither affordable enough nor differentiated enough to fully resonate.

Leisure and accommodation, however, are seeing stronger momentum. As consumers become more selective, they’re prioritising experiences that feel worth the spend -social, memorable and emotionally rewarding.

Value means more than price

A consistent theme throughout the event was how much the definition of value has evolved.

While affordability is still critical, value is now much broader - encompassing quality, experience, convenience and how a purchase fits into consumers’ wider lives. Increasingly, people are not simply spending less; they are spending more selectively.

Tactics like meal deals remain highly effective, particularly among frequent users, while “barbell pricing” - offering strong entry-level and premium options - is gaining traction. Loyalty also plays a key role, but only when it is simple, fair and clearly worthwhile.

Convenience and channel expansion

Consumers are expecting brands to be available whenever and wherever they need them. This is driving a shift towards more integrated, multi-channel strategies - bringing together dine-in, delivery, click-and-collect and emerging formats like unattended retail.

Operators that are performing well are those that can offer a consistent experience across these touchpoints, covering multiple missions throughout the day. From travel hubs to healthcare settings, the ability to flex formats is becoming a real competitive advantage.

Health and GLP‑1: a small shift with big implications

The rise of GLP‑1 weight loss medications was a major talking point. While its overall financial impact may seem relatively small, it is significant in a low-growth market.

The shifts are already visible. Users are visiting less frequently, choosing smaller portions and often trading down on drinks. However, the impact isn’t uniform - social occasions remain relatively protected, and many consumers are still engaging with the sector, just in different ways.

The most effective responses are simple: offer flexibility, allow customisation, and provide clear nutritional information without overcomplicating menus or singling out specific groups.

Panel session: where insight meets reality

The panel discussion brought the trends to life, with operators from Savills/Battersea Power Station, Compass One Retail and Arcade food halls (the event venue) offering a grounded view of what is really happening on the ground and where they see the biggest opportunities.

• Experience is becoming the real differentiator

  A clear takeaway was that consumers are being far more deliberate about when and where they spend. The “default” midweek meal out is becoming less common, replaced by more intentional, experience-led occasions.

  Operators highlighted that people are still willing to spend - but only when it feels worthwhile. Formats that offer something memorable, whether that’s chef-led experiences, unique cuisines or interactive elements, are more likely to win.

• Niche and authenticity are gaining traction

  There was strong agreement that demand is moving towards more specific and authentic propositions. Rather than generic “pan-Asian” or broad categories, consumers are gravitating towards regional cuisines and concepts they can’t easily replicate at home.  At the same time, flexible formats, particularly those that allow mixing price points and cuisines, are helping attract groups with different budgets and preferences.

• Value is complex and increasingly individual

  Operators reinforced just how nuanced value has become. It’s no longer just about price; it’s about how each decision fits into a customer’s day.  Consumers are constantly weighing trade-offs: spending less on one occasion to justify spending more on another. This “micro‑budgeting” mindset means brands need to be clearer than ever on what they offer and why it’s worth the spend.

• Technology remains a balancing act

  The role of technology sparked plenty of debate. While tools like QR ordering and self-service can improve efficiency and transparency, they also risk removing the human element that defines hospitality. Several operators pointed to a growing need to strike the right balance - using technology to support service, rather than replace it. In many cases, the real opportunity lies in empowering staff to deliver better, more informed interactions.

• People still matter most

  Perhaps unsurprisingly, the panel returned to the importance of people. Whether it’s knowledgeable front-of-house teams or well-trained staff in QSR environments, human interaction remains a key differentiator, particularly as customer expectations continue to rise.

A resilient sector with plenty to play for

The event closed on a confident but realistic note. The AFH market faces clear challenges - cost pressures, shifting consumer behaviour and increased competition -but it also benefits from strong underlying demand for social, out-of-home experiences.

The opportunity lies in clarity and focus. In a more selective market, operators and suppliers must be clear about the role they play - whether that’s convenience, value, experience or a combination of all three - and deliver it consistently.

Key takeaways for AFH operators and suppliers

• Redefine value

  • Focus on perceived worth, not just price

  • Keep offers simple, clear and easy to understand

• Back winning formats

  • QSR, convenience-led and experience-led models are strongest

  • Mid-market propositions need sharper differentiation

• Build flexibility into the offer

  • Enable smaller portions, customisation and varied price points

  • Respond quickly to changing demand and feedback

• Strengthen omnichannel capability

  • Deliver a consistent experience across dine-in, delivery and new formats

  • Cover multiple missions across the day

• Respond practically to health shifts

  • Focus on flexibility and information rather than major range overhauls

  • Expect gradual changes in frequency, portions and drink choices

• Keep loyalty simple and valuable

  • Make schemes easy to use, fair and genuinely rewarding

• Lean into innovation

  • Explore global cuisines, drinks trends and experience-led concepts

  • Stay close to customer and operator insight

• Don’t lose the human touch

  • Use technology to support service, not replace it

  • Invest in people, training and expertise at every touchpoint

Want to know more?

Away From Home subscribers can access the full 2026-2031 forecast here.

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