When we spoke to shoppers in May, apprehension was already shaping their outlook. Five months later, the Autumn Budget has landed against a backdrop of continued pressure on household finances. Our latest research amongst 1082 UK adults on 28-29th October, asked whether that outlook has shifted and what this means for how shoppers will spend in the months ahead.
The government’s budget outlined measures intended to help households with energy costs, fuel prices, food prices and wages. But has this impact been felt by shoppers across the nation?
Impact of the budget on household finances and shopper outlook
On the surface, it’s not a very positive picture. 40% of UK adults say the budget announcements have made them feel more negative about their future finances, whilst only 15% say they have made them feel more positive. Almost 4 in 10 (39%) expect to be worse off in six months' time, up from 3 in 10 (31%) in May.
Yet beneath this pessimism, there are some signs that immediate concerns about rising prices have eased. The proportion expecting food and grocery prices to rise over the next few months has fallen 14%pts since May. Expectations of rising energy and fuel costs have also fallen. However, that needs to be kept in perspective. 7 in 10 (71%) still expect food and grocery prices to rise, so this is an easing of concern rather than a return to optimism.
How is this translating into shoppers’ spending plans?
While expectations of price increases have eased, financial caution remains. Shoppers continue to expect to spend more on necessities while cutting back on discretionary spending. More say they will spend more on basic groceries over the next few months (42% in October vs 36% in May), while the proportion planning to spend less on premium groceries has risen (38% vs 33%).
With Christmas approaching, the challenge for retailers and manufacturers will be convincing shoppers that trading up is worth it. Promotions on premium products could play an important role in allowing shoppers to celebrate the occasion without losing sight of their budgets.
The squeeze on finances is particularly acute among family households. 6 in 10 households with children say they have already made as many cutbacks as possible, compared with 46% of households without children. Yet families are also more likely to expect to spend more on both basic and premium groceries. Christmas could intensify this pressure, with 6 in 10 households with children saying they are worried about the cost of Christmas celebrations. This suggests many face a difficult balance between protecting Christmas spending and managing already-stretched household budgets, potentially leaving them with a very challenging January.
‘Be Ready’: are shoppers ready?
Another matter for retailers and manufacturers to consider this Christmas, is how shopping patterns could be impacted by the government’s ‘Be Ready’ campaign, which is already seeing households stock up on cupboard staples. One third (33%) of UK adults agreed that they are going to follow the Government advice and create a stockpile of food, water and emergency supplies at home. Whilst these may not be seasonal-specific items, it could lead to disruption in supply chains having a knock-on effect on supplies of other grocery items.
What does this mean for retailers and manufacturers?
Whilst shoppers may be less fearful of immediate price rises than they were earlier in the year, that does not mean household finances feel healthier. Demonstrating value, especially to households with more mouths to feed, will remain critical. At the same time, retailers and suppliers will need to work harder to give shoppers reasons to trade up, particularly around occasions such as Christmas.
Take a look at our Viewpoint Special: What the 2026 Budget means for the food industry report to find out more about what the budget and economic outlook means for businesses.
Access all our shopper insights on the ShopperVista platform. We have a dedicated page for our Christmas insights, which will be updated with our upcoming research on Christmas shopping plans and shopper reactions to in store activations. For more information reach out to me on [email protected] or [email protected]