Global convenience to hit $1 trillion by 2030 but will lose market share

IGD (Institute of Grocery Distribution) forecasts that the global convenience channel will grow from around US$900bn in 2025 to over $1 trillion in sales by 2030, with the world’s top 20 operators accounting for over US$80bn.  

However, the insight provider also predicts the channel will lose share in the grocery market as it faces rising competition from discounters, supermarkets, and rapid delivery services. 

IGD’s ‘Global convenience trends 2026’ report finds that while convenience will continue to grow at 3.5% CAGR to 2030, this will trail total grocery growth of 4.0% CAGR. As a result, IGD expects the channel’s share of grocery will fall from 10.7% in 2025 to 10.4% in 2030. 

Sneha Haria, Insight Manager at IGD, said: “The headline growth masks a structural challenge: convenience risks becoming a bigger channel with a smaller role in grocery spending unless retailers and suppliers adapt. The channel’s historic advantages are being eroded, and without change, it will continue to lose share.” 

Europe and Asia lead the pack 

IGD’s analysis shows that convenience’s growth and market share will vary greatly by region. 

North America, the largest convenience market globally, is expected to grow the slowest, with market share declining from 16.9% in 2025 to 15.1% in 2030 as discounters and rapid delivery intensify competition. 

Europe is projected to deliver the strongest market share gains, rising from 11.3% to 11.9%, driven by aggressive estate expansion and franchising. 

Asia will contribute the largest increase in absolute sales, but convenience penetration will remain below 8% as traditional retail and local food markets continue to compete strongly. 

Why convenience is losing share 

IGD’s research identifies several forces driving share decline. Discounters are expanding locally and attracting value‑conscious shoppers, while supermarkets are sharpening small format propositions and fast delivery platforms are reducing immediate‑need store visits. 

Rising operating costs and regulation limiting pricing flexibility are also impacting performance, as is shoppers’ perception of convenience being an expensive channel, particularly during periods of high inflation.  

Together, these factors are eroding convenience’s traditional advantages on proximity, speed and mission clarity. 

Choice over proximity 

IGD’s analysis highlights that convenience operators gaining share are those redefining the role of the store, rather than relying on proximity alone. 

Successful retailers are increasingly focused on: 

• Creating clear food‑for‑now and food‑for‑later missions. 

• Strengthening value credentials through private label, loyalty, and simpler pricing. 

• Using automation and technology to protect margins and improve efficiency. 

• Adding services, food, and experiences that competitors struggle to replicate locally. 

Haria added: “Convenience can no longer rely on proximity to justify its place in grocery. The operators gaining share are deliberately reshaping their offer around clear food missions, visible value, and everyday usefulness.” 

Find out more 

IGD’s ‘Global convenience trends 2026’ report is available on the IGD website. It provides in‑depth analysis of: global and regional analysis of convenience sales and market share to 2030; the trends evolving convenience stores globally; strategic implications for retailers and suppliers. 
 

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Notes to editors: 

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3. IGD brings together stakeholders from across the food system, fostering action across on critical challenges across a broad cross section of forums. Through evidence-based insights, credible research, and thought leadership, IGD guides businesses to make informed decisions that not only benefit their operations but also contribute to the collective good of society.  As a charity with a long-standing commitment to the food and grocery industry, IGD does not advocate for any single commercial interest but works towards fostering alignment on shared goals that can have a positive, lasting impact on both the industry and the communities it serves. Its neutrality and impartiality are key to its role in facilitating collaboration, whether through policy development or addressing emerging risks and opportunities. By staying connected to the changing dynamics of the world, IGD ensures that the food system remains robust and sustainable, creating tangible benefits for businesses, consumers and society.