Bulletin: Youth inactivity risks talent pipeline

Youth inactivity threatens talent pipeline 

Alan Milburn has published the interim findings (Report 1) of his review into young people not in education, employment or training (NEET), warning that rising youth inactivity is a structural challenge that risks weakening the future labour pipeline. Key findings include: 

• Britain is “at risk of a lost generation” without urgent action  

• 1 in 6 young people could be NEET within five years if trends continue  

• The issue is structural, not cyclical 

• Entry-level roles have declined over time 

• Rising health and support needs are affecting participation 

Official data underlines the scale of the challenge, with around 1.01 million young people (13.5%) now NEET, the highest level in over a decade.  

For the food industry, this signals growing risks to future talent supply and a stronger role for employers in supporting routes into work. 

See our new article, Milburn review: Impact on food leaders.

IGD opinion 

Alan Milburn’s interim report into young people and work makes sobering reading. His conclusion is that we need to fix a broken system to avoid a generational, societal and economic catastrophe, and it will not be solved by government alone. We cannot afford to stand by while too many young people are locked out of opportunity, especially when our food and drink industry is facing its own quiet crisis of skills gaps and workforce shortages. If we want a stronger food system tomorrow, we need to invest in young people today. That is why businesses across the food and consumer goods system are committing to Feeding Britain’s Future, a movement that aims to mobilise the scale of the food system to build a skilled and future-ready workforce. The ambition is bold: to engage every UK secondary school by 2030, reverse NEET numbers and inspire a generation to make their career in food and drink. 

Why Feeding Britain’s Future matters now 

As labour market conditions soften, structural barriers still risk limiting future workforce supply.  
Feeding Britain’s Future helps rebuild talent pipelines by connecting young people with employers and improving awareness of careers in food and drink.  

Act now: 

• Email feedingbritain'[email protected] to formally Join the movement 

• Share your high-res logo  

• Join our launch event on 4 June; with speakers including CEO of Tesco, Greencore and Sainsburys and Director General from Department of Workforce and Pensions. 

Businesses can play a direct role in strengthening future talent supply and supporting the next generation into work. 

Middle East briefing 

Energy bills jump as price cap rises 

Ofgem has confirmed the energy price cap will rise by 13% from 1 July to 30 September, lifting the typical annual dual-fuel bill paid by direct debit from £1,641 to £1,862. The increase reflects higher wholesale gas prices linked to conflict in the Middle East. Around 40% of accounts on fixed tariffs are unaffected, but the change adds fresh pressure to household budgets and could weigh on consumer demand in the months ahead.

IGD opinion 

While food inflation has slowed, the overall cost-of-living challenge has not gone away – it is shifting. A higher energy price cap raises a fixed, unavoidable cost for households, leaving less room to absorb other increases. With global pressures still feeding through and supply chain costs showing early signs of rising again, IGD expects pressure on consumer confidence, spending behaviour and value perceptions to intensify later this year. 

Oil markets swing on ceasefire hopes 

Energy markets remain volatile as ceasefire signals from the US have briefly eased oil prices, but renewed strikes in the Middle East continue to unsettle markets. Brent crude has fluctuated around recent highs, reflecting uncertainty over supply disruptions and keeping pressure on energy costs. 

UK consults on further food tariff cuts 

The UK government has launched a consultation on targeted reductions to agri‑food tariffs to help ease food price pressures. The exercise seeks industry input on an indicative list of over 100 products, including food items such as biscuits, chocolate, dried fruit and nuts. as well as fertilisers, and kerosene. 

Potential savings are estimated at over £150m per year for consumers, assuming the food industry passes the tariff cuts through in lower prices. The approach focuses on products with limited UK production, balancing potential consumer savings with food security and domestic impact. This is independent of the current HFSS and School Food Standards consultations. The consultation closes on 24 June 2026. 

Manufacturing confidence hits new low 

A new survey paints a bleak picture for UK food manufacturers as confidence slumps to -64%, the lowest since 2022, amid mounting fallout from the Middle East conflict. Rising energy and supply chain pressures are forcing difficult decisions across the sector. Key findings include: 

• 82% say they will need to raise prices 

• 33% expect to cut headcount or marketing spend 

• Plastic packaging costs up by 15%