Inflation rising ahead of official forecasts
16 December 2021New data from ONS shows that inflation in the UK economy continued to accelerate in November 2021..
New data from ONS shows that inflation in the UK economy continued to accelerate in November 2021..
Annual “all items” inflation moved from +3.8% in October 2021 to +4.6% in November, which is the highest it has been since September 2008.
Annual “food and drink” inflation rose from +1.3% in October 2021 to +2.5% in November. Inflation for these products has now been positive for four consecutive months.
Using the older RPI method – which includes mortgage interest payments – annual inflation in November 2021 was +7.1% for “all items” and +2.6% for “food”.
Whichever method is used, it is clear that inflation is returning to the UK economy much faster and much sooner than was envisaged by the OBR in their Economic and Fiscal Outlook report, and by the Bank of England. Both anticipated that CPI inflation would peak at around 4.0 -4.5% in Q2 2022.
In the case of the Bank, strengthening inflation increases the likelihood of base rate changes, with possible impacts on mortgage rates.
It is also clear that, for many workers, inflation has begun to erode the benefits of pay growth seen over Summer and Autumn 2021, leaving some worse off, in “real terms”.
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