How the food to go market will evolve to 2031

The food to go market is operating in a challenging environment. Slow economic growth, ongoing global conflicts and concerns around stability are just some of the pressures facing both businesses and consumers, leading to constrained growth. Food to go has historically shown its resilience as a sub-set of the total UK food and drink market. This will remain true in comparison to the wider market, but growth will be harder to find in the short-term.  

Our new five-year food to go forecast report explores the outlook for the market and its five sectors across away from home and retail. The report details the drivers and barriers to growth in the short- and long-term, and identifies the opportunities for retailers, operators and suppliers.

Key headlines from the forecast 

The food to go market will be worth £35bn in 2031 

IGD expects the market to grow by 3.8% in 2026, reaching a value of £27.9bn. By 2031, the market will reach a value of £35bn, representing a CAGR of 4.6% from 2026-2031.

Growth will be inflationary in the short-term 

The food to go market will dip into negative growth in real terms in 2027 and 2028, meaning inflation will outstrip any volume growth. A more difficult macro environment combined with a challenging economic consumer outlook will impact footfall and volume sales. This will predominantly be driven by the away from home sectors of the market, which will be more adversely affected by lower footfall and higher inflation than the retail sectors.  

Consumer confidence and disposable income will take time to recover, limiting spending growth and keeping buying decisions under scrutiny. This means that success for operators and retailers will increasingly depend on their ability to deliver compelling reasons for consumers to spend, driving frequency and trade ups where possible.  

Stronger real growth is expected to return later in the forecast period as economic conditions improve and confidence gradually rebuilds. The businesses that strengthen their propositions today will be best placed to benefit when the recovery period arrives.  

Retailers will gain share in the short-term 

As the short-term challenges more adversely impact the away from home sectors, retail will see short-term gains in share of total market value.  

Retailers benefit from strong convenience credentials and an established reputation for value, particularly through the meal deal mechanic. As consumers stay selective with discretionary spending, these strengths will remain important.  

However, the away from home sectors will regain their momentum as confidence returns. This means retailers will need to continue innovating to maintain relevance across a broader range of occasions and compete with rival sectors. Opportunities are emerging around quick commerce, occasion expansion and healthier food to go products that address evolving consumer priorities.  

Fast food specialists will widen their advantage 

The fast food specialists will be the long-term winner, supported by strong value credentials, ability to pivot quickly to changing consumer trends, and ability to invest in operations and efficiencies, backed by the global players in the sector.  

Fast food specialists have been focusing widening their relevance and appeal to different consumer groups, day parts and occasions. Innovation in drinks, premium meal development and occasion-led marketing have all supported the sector’s efforts to steal missions, and therefore market share, from other sectors.  

GLP-1 is a headwind to watch 

The growing use of GLP-1s (weight loss drugs) will have a growing impact on the market, impacting both frequency and spend as adoption increases. For the QSR sector, GLP-1 users report ordering smaller portions, ordering healthier dishes and visiting less as top changes in behaviour.  

This shows that consumers are more willing to engage in a different way with operators, than cut them out completely, but this will require operators and retailers being able to cater to these changing needs with flexibility in portion sizes and clarity of nutritional content.   

What this means for retailers 

Retailers are well placed to benefit from continued demand for value and convenience, but future growth will depend on evolving beyond the traditional meal deal. Strengthening food to go propositions through health, quick commerce, occasion expansion and stronger front of store execution will be key to maintaining relevance as consumer needs change. 

What this means for operators 

Operators will need to balance short-term value and efficiency with longer-term innovation and growth. The winners will be those that can stay relevant to multiple occasions, adapt quickly to changing consumer needs and create compelling reasons for consumers to visit more often and spend more when confidence returns. 

What this means for suppliers 

Suppliers have an opportunity to become strategic partners by helping customers reduce costs, improve efficiency and bring innovation to market faster. Supporting emerging needs around health, convenience, premiumisation and value will be critical to helping operators and retailers navigate a changing market and unlock future growth.