Bulletin: UK harvest 2025 fuels inflation concerns

UK harvest 2025 fuels food inflation concerns

Following the driest spring and hottest summer on record, UK crop yields are down, and variability is high. Wheat and barley harvests are below average, and oilseed rape plantings have dropped 19%. With food and drink prices already up 4.9% year-on-year, food inflation may reach the top of our forecast range, driven by meat, beverages and confectionery.

See the latest article: UK harvest woes: Food inflation and security impact

IGD opinion

Extreme weather is now a defining risk for the UK food system. Businesses must prioritise climate resilience and prepare for greater price volatility. IGD launched the UK’s first food system climate model on 1 October 2025 to help quantify future risks and guide strategic planning.

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Baby food guidelines signal industry shift

The DHSC has released voluntary guidelines to improve the nutritional quality of baby foods, targeting sugar, salt, and labelling. With 18 months to comply, businesses are urged to reformulate and align with government nutrition guidelines. The move follows rising scrutiny and health concerns around early-years diets.

 See the latest article: Baby food guidelines signal change

IGD opinion

This is a positive step. If widely adopted, it could reshape the baby food market and support healthier infant diets. But success depends on parental education and broader efforts, as well as industry action, to shift household eating habits.

Investors call for health reporting

A group of 23 investors are urging UK food businesses to set and disclose healthy sales targets, warning that poor diets pose systemic financial risks and undermine public health. They call for robust implementation of mandatory measures as essential to protecting public health, economic productivity, and long-term investment returns.

IGD opinion

The NHS 10-Year Plan is a timely catalyst for change. IGD sees mandatory health reporting as an important step to accelerate innovation, attract investment, foster collaboration across the food sector and provide a level playing field so impact can be made at scale. See our recent article NHS 10 Year Plan: Food and drink impact

The workforce timebomb

A new IGD report reveals that 19% of young people are unaware of food and drink careers, despite the sector being the UK’s largest private employer. With 4.2 million jobs and rising demand, the industry faces a critical skills gap. The Mmmake Your Mark campaign urges businesses to inspire and equip the next generation. As the UK population grows, boosting domestic food capacity will be vital-making workforce development a national priority.

See the white paper report: The Workforce Timebomb to explore the workforce challenges within the food system.

Energy price cap rises

Ofgem has set the energy price cap at £1,755/year for a typical household from 1 October to 31 December 2025 - a 2% rise from the previous quarter. The cap limits what suppliers can charge on standard variable tariffs, ensuring fair pricing. It reflects wholesale, network, and policy costs, and varies by region and payment method. Consumers on Direct Debit, prepayment, or Economy 7 meters are covered.

CMA supports continued oversight of grocery sector

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has responded to the Department for Business and Trade’s statutory review of the Groceries Code Adjudicator (GCA), covering April 2022 to March 2025. The CMA supports the GCA’s continued role in promoting fair trading between retailers and suppliers, citing strong compliance and improved supplier confidence. The review aims to assess effectiveness and future priorities for grocery sector regulation.