Bulletin: GDP initiatives, land use, population

Growth initiatives

The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has given a wide-ranging speech in which she pledged to go “further and faster” to drive economic growth for the UK. Key initiatives will include:

• Development of the Oxford / Cambridge “Growth Corridor”

• The opening of a third runway at Heathrow

• Redevelopment of Old Trafford

• More infrastructure investment

She also hinted at changes to criteria for planning decisions, intended to shift the balance of decision-making for major projects towards “yes”.

Download our FREE latest Viewpoint report: A shaky start to 2025, what’s next? to understand how  the UK economy and government finances are likely to remain under pressure in 2025.

IGD Opinion

The speech was in-line with established government methods and objectives and analysts will not have been surprised by the content. The food system did not receive any focus however, which is disappointing in view of its potential to deliver economic, social and sustainability gains. In view of anticipated population growth, the UK food system will need more capacity and more focus from government in future.

Land use consultation

The government has launched a consultation on a new approach to Land Use. The objective is to produce a final Land Use Framework which will:

• Protect UK food security while pursuing the mission of economic growth

• Use sophisticated data on how land is used

• Provide the principles, advanced data and tools to support decision-making by local government, landowners, businesses, farmers, and nature groups to make the most of the land

• Maximise the potential of multiple uses of land to drive private finance into the sector

The consultation will include workshops across the country that include farmers and landowners. The consultation will run for 12 weeks with the final Land Use Framework published later in the year.

Population growth

New ONS population projections predict that the UK population is expected to grow from around 69.9m in 2025 to 73.4m by 2035. All growth over this period will come from net immigration rather than natural change, which will be slightly negative (i.e. more deaths than births). It will continue to grow beyond that, eventually levelling-off in the late 2080s at over 81m.

IGD Opinion

Expanding population might be seen as positive by food and drink businesses that are desperate for growth, but it also raises enormous practical challenges. The capacity to produce, or, at least, to acquire food will need to expand significantly, placing yet more pressure on soil, water and ecology.

It will also call for more labour. In the short- to mid- term, up to 2060, the proportion of people of working age will remain fairly steady at about 64% of the population (although not all will necessarily be in work).

However, from about 2060, the proportion of working people will fall away quickly, leaving fewer workers available to pay taxes, feed the population and do all the other tasks that are needed.

The answer to both issues is to increase productivity of the food system, creating more food from the resources and labour available.

Deposit return scheme

New legislation for the Deposit Return Scheme (DRS) has come into force in England and Northern Ireland.

The regulations for DRS set out:

• The scope of the DRS

• The role of retailers, drinks producers and suppliers – see the regulations guidance

• The functions of the scheme administrator, known as the Deposit Management Organisation (DMO)

• The monitoring, compliance and enforcement measures that will be in place to support the running of the scheme

Applications for the DMO close on 3 February. DEFRA, DAERA and the Scottish Government will assess applications and appoint the DMO(s) in April. The DMO will provide more detailed guidance for businesses and set the deposit amount.

The launch of DRS is still on track for October 2027. Scotland's regulations are progressing, and they will issue separate guidance.

Avian flu

Due to the  escalating number of cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza, the avian influenza prevention zone (AIPZ) has been extended to cover the whole of England. The AIPZ mandating enhanced biosecurity and housing has been extended to also include the unitary authorities of Shropshire, York and North Yorkshire.