Bulletin: Viewpoint, inflation forecasts, strategy update

Viewpoint Special: Hungry for growth

We have published our new Viewpoint Special: Hungry for growth which you can access on the IGD website now.

In addition to our new food inflation forecasts, which take into account changes in the Budget, this Viewpoint Special explores why the food system is essential to the UK’s future success – why we must build resilience and how there are significant growth opportunities ready to be unlocked.

The report covers:

• how the UK food system contributes to the UK economy

• why building food system resilience is essential to achieving economic growth

• our latest food inflation forecasts and their impacts on shoppers

• the scale of opportunity that can be unlocked across the food system

Download the free report.

Food strategy update

The Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural affairs has set out the government’s approach to designing a new food strategy, with work to kick off in the new year.

DEFRA will operate as the lead department as part of a new sector delivery board working through the wider health mission board. DEFRA will work closely with other departments across Whitehall including the Department for Health and Social Care, Department for Education and Department for Business and Trade.

The food strategy will aim to:

• develop a shared understanding of food security by building resilience

• boost investment, productivity, and innovation, to ensure the food system continues to drive economic growth

• provide healthier, more easily accessible food to tackle obesity

• support the Farming Roadmap, facilitating financially and environmentally sustainable farming practices

The Secretary of State also committed to publishing the land use framework in the new year, re-iterating support for the work of the National Food Strategy and did not rule out using legislation if necessary to deliver the strategy.

IGD opinion

This is a significant step in the new government’s approach to the food system and once defined, is likely to shape our food system for years to come. To boost resilience, unlock growth opportunities across the system and support the transition to healthy and sustainable diets, government and business must work together, with a different, more strategic approach.

Across the food system there is huge appetite for working together and businesses of all sizes are willing and ready to invest in a pipeline of projects that will drive growth and secure our food supply
Confidence, clarity, and certainty which can come through this food strategy are the starting point for unlocking growth across our food system.

Food Security Report

The latest Food Security Report published by DEFRA, sets out the challenges the food system has faced in recent years.

Key findings include:

• UK food price inflation was among the highest of G7 economies in 2023, indicating challenges to UK food resilience, linked to UK’s energy supply

• extreme weather events continue to have a significant effect on domestic food production

• the UK is highly dependent on imports in fruit, vegetables and seafood

• the long-term decline in UK’s natural capital is a pressing risk to food production

• climate change, nature loss and water insecurity pose significant risk to the global food system

IGD Opinion

The UK Food Security Report underlines the significant challenges businesses across the food system have faced in recent years and articulates areas where risks may appear in the years to come.

Looking to the future, we are facing into a more unstable world with ongoing geopolitical instability, and a changing climate driving significant risks to the food system. Recent events in Spain have been a stark reminder of the devastating impacts of climate change, bringing into focus the importance of climate adaptation.

Poultry, fruit and fresh vegetables are some of the largest traded categories and those for which we are most dependent on imports. These offer opportunities for investment and growth, to both meet domestic demand and build resilience.