Bulletin: Autumn budget set amid debt market jitters

Autumn budget set amid rising borrowing fears

The Chancellor has announced that the 2025 Budget (and the accompanying OBR report) will be delivered on 26th November.

In a video message, the Chancellor reaffirmed her commitment to the UK’s fiscal rules, stating:

“Cost of living pressures are still real. And we must bring inflation and borrowing costs down by keeping a tight grip on day-to-day spending.”

This signals that the Budget will prioritise reassuring investors and maintaining financial discipline.

IGD opinion

This Budget will be especially demanding for the Chancellor and her advisors. She will need to deliver the promise of better economic performance and fiscal improvement. Her audience will be not only MPs and voters but also – perhaps primarily – institutional lenders.

It is these lenders - not the Chancellor - that decide how much the UK government can borrow and on what terms.

At the time of writing, a wave of concern is spreading through government bond markets. With lenders worried about getting their money back, there have been some bond sales and borrowing costs have risen for many governments. The UK is one of these, with interest rates (known as bond “yields”) hitting 5.7% this week for 30-year bonds.

This is a high rate, the highest since 1998, and certainly high enough to threaten government finances, which are based on assumptions about bond rates.

It is likely that reassuring investors, in the hope of bringing borrowing costs under control, will be top priority. Meeting fiscal rules will likely require significant steps to bring spending under control quickly, and/or raise income through taxation.

There will be no easy answers.

What to expect from HFSS changes

New HFSS regulations will ban multibuy promotions in England from autumn 2025 and restrict advertising UK-wide from January 2026. Devolved nations will follow with varied timelines. Mandatory reporting of healthy sales is expected before the end of the current parliament. Businesses must prepare for regional differences, stricter marketing rules, and increased data transparency.

See our latest article here: HFSS changes: what to prepare for.

Energy drinks ban for under-16s

The government plans to ban high-caffeine energy drinks for under-16s to tackle health and learning issues. Retailers will be prohibited from selling to minors. Many large retailers have already implemented this, but it’ll ensure a level playing field if/when it is implemented. The ban is part of the NHS 10 Year Plan. A consultation will run for twelve weeks. 

Trump tariff powers curbed by court ruling

The US Court of Appeals has upheld most of a trade court’s May decision, ruling 7–4 that President Trump overstepped constitutional powers by declaring a national emergency to justify tariffs.

The judgment affects tariffs imposed on Canada, China, and Mexico in early 2020, as well as broader April measures. Tariffs based on other legal grounds, such as those on metals and vehicles, remain unaffected. President Trump has until mid-October to respond.

IGD opinion

This is a clear legal blow to Trump’s trade strategy. While not a final defeat, the split decision leaves room for appeal or a fresh attempt via Congressional approval.

Trump’s response suggests he still views trade imbalances as a national emergency and remains committed to tariffs as a tool.

Two major challenges now loom:

1. Refunds – Importers may seek repayment for tariffs already paid if deemed unlawful.

2. Diplomatic leverage – Tariffs have been used to pressure trade partners. Without them, Trump’s negotiating power may weaken.

The future of US trade policy, and President Trump’s influence over it, now hangs in the balance.

Allergens risk assessment guidance

IGD has launched a new allergen risk assessment template and guidance, developed with industry leaders to create a consistent, best-practice approach.

Why does this matter? Consistency in allergen management reduces risk, builds trust, and strengthens the resilience of our food system.

Download the free guidance here.

Feeding the future: Resilience across the food system

The IFST Autumn Conference 2025 will focus on food resilience and food security. This comes at a critical time for the sector, with growing pressure to future-proof supply chains and boost domestic capacity.

Join over 200 leaders, innovators, and experts from across the food system on Tuesday 7 October 2025 at the East Midlands Conference Centre in Nottingham.