GLP-1s alone won’t fix our food system

What do GLP-1s mean for shoppers, and how should industry respond?

GLP-1 medications, originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes, have quickly become a hot topic not just in healthcare, but across policy and the food industry. These drugs, such as Wegovy and Mounjaro, are now widely used for weight loss. They work by mimicking gut hormones, such as GLP-1, that regulate appetite to help people eat less and feel fuller for longer.

With more than a billion people globally living with obesity, these drugs are often seen as a breakthrough. But from IGD’s perspective, they’re just one part of a much bigger picture. They can support individuals on their health journey, but they’re not a replacement for the dietary changes needed at a population level to improve health in a lasting way.

A rapid trend with global Implications

In the UK, the use of GLP-1s is gaining pace. Our ShopperVista data shows that around 3% of adults say they’ve already tried a GLP-1, and nearly one in four know someone who has. Appetite for these drugs is growing, 11% of all adults say they’d consider trying weight loss injections, rising to 19% among those currently trying to lose weight. That’s potentially over 6 million future users in the UK alone.

Uptake in the US is even further ahead, with 6% of adults reportedly using them in 2024, and that figure predicted to rise. Globally, analysts suggest up to 10% of eligible adults could eventually use these medications. For the food and drink industry, this signals a potentially significant shift in how, when, and what people eat.

Early disruption is already visible as Volumes Decline

GLP-1s are undoubtedly disrupting consumption patterns, though data on the specific changes varies. Users of GLP-1s told IGD ShopperVista that they’re eating more fruit, vegetables, fibre and protein, while cutting back on snacks, soft drinks, and alcohol. Another study found that within six months of starting GLP-1s, users reported consuming 20-30% fewer calories, snacking less, reducing portion sizes, and skipping meals.

While self-reported data has its limitations, US household spending data paints a similar picture. Analysis demonstrates a 5.5% drop in grocery spending in homes with a GLP-1 user, and an 8.6% drop in spending on food consumed away from home.

Some brands are already responding. For example, Greggs recently announced plans to offer smaller portions and more protein-rich options to cater to customers on GLP-1s, as part of efforts to combat slowing sales. Categories like baked goods, savoury snacks and soft drinks may feel pressure, while others, like high-protein products, and functional foods could see demand grow.

GLP-1s are only part of the solution

GLP-1s offer significant promise as a treatment, but they’re not a cure. They don’t tackle the root causes of poor diet or obesity, and their benefits are often temporary without broader lifestyle support. Weight regain is common once treatment stops, and long-term success depends on building healthy habits that can be sustained over time.

These drugs also bring nutritional challenges. Suppressed appetite can reduce intake of protein, fibre, and essential micronutrients. Side effects like nausea and dehydration can make eating, let alone preparing nutritious meals, more difficult. That’s why expert support matters. Research shows GLP-1 use is more effective when paired with:

• Tailored nutrition advice

• Management of gastrointestinal side effects

• Guidance on maintaining muscle and bone mass through diet and resistance training

• Complementary lifestyle interventions, including mental health support

While much of this sits within the remit of healthcare professionals, it also raises an important question for the food industry:

How do we support people who are eating less, to eat better?

This is a crucial opportunity. From fortification to functional foods, product innovation and portion sizes, the industry has a role to play in helping users of GLP-1s and the wider population access healthy food.

The bigger picture: why we need a holistic view on health

GLP-1s are reshaping the obesity conversation, helping to reframe it as a treatable condition. But they aren’t the full solution, and they offer a relatively narrow economic return when compared to broader, system-wide approaches.

Expanding access will also come at a significant cost. If the UK chooses to scale up GLP-1 provision on the NHS, to increase impact and reduce inequalities in access, particularly for those who can’t afford private treatment, we will stretch an already pressured system.

Nesta recently modelled what might happen if around 3 million people in the UK with a BMI of 30+ were offered GLP-1s. The results were striking, suggesting a projected 41% reduction in adult obesity. Whilst clearly a potential gamechanger for public health this comes with a hefty price tag, with an estimated five-year delivery cost of £42 billion, for an estimated £26 billion in annual benefit. That’s a solid return but not a transformative one. While GLP-1s are likely to be cost-effective over time due to reduced NHS spending on obesity-related disease, the upfront investment and need for sustained, long-term use make large-scale rollout financially challenging.

Meanwhile, tackling the root causes of poor health, such as food insecurity, lack of access to healthier choices, and obesogenic environments, could unlock far greater value.

The McKinsey Health Institute (MHI) estimates that, if left unaddressed, obesity could cost the global economy $2.76 trillion in lost GDP by 2050 due to lower workforce participation and productivity. Their report outlines two possible paths forward:

1. A reactive approach focused on medical treatment and pharmaceutical weight management

2. A more ambitious path that prioritises prevention, population-level dietary shifts, and better food environments to support metabolic health for all

The potential impact of the second path is far greater. MHI projects that it could lead to a $5.65 trillion annual uplift in global GDP by 2050, equivalent to 3% of total GDP, and three to four times the health impact of a treatment-led strategy.

The message is clear: long-term, preventative change, focussed on better diets and healthier environments offers a far bigger prize than a strategy focused solely on pharmaceuticals

Behaviour change needs more than willpower

GLP-1s can support individual change but only if the environment does too. At IGD, we’ve seen how layout, labelling, portion sizes, and messaging all influence decisions. People can’t make better choices if better options aren’t easy to access.

What should businesses do next?

The most forward-thinking businesses aren’t standing still, they’re adapting to meet these emerging needs, while keeping the bigger picture in focus. Some key opportunities include:

• Innovating for new needs: Smaller portions, higher protein, fibre-rich formats, and products that support gut health, hydration, or nutrient absorption.

• Supporting side effects: Designing products that consider nausea, fatigue, or low appetite, for example, gentle textures, convenient broths, or fortified snacks.

• Helping people make better choices: Through simple health messaging, digital guidance, and trusted voices in-store and online.

• Going beyond the medicated: Designing inclusive offers that work for everyone, not just those on GLP-1s, but particularly for those at higher risk of diet-related illness.

We also see a growing opportunity in combining product innovation with behaviour change tools. This might look like pairing dietary advice with new formats, signposting healthier swaps, or partnering across sectors to build long-term engagement.

Final thought

GLP-1s are already reshaping how we think about weight, health, and food. But if the industry only reacts to them, it risks missing a bigger opportunity. We must look beyond the needle, to the plate, the pack, and the places where choices are made. That’s where long-term, sustainable change begins.