Will GLP-1s mean the end of (over) eating?

As GLP-1 use increases in more countries globally, we examine short and long-term variables that will shape the future of consumption.

The appeal of an appetite “off switch” is obvious

While strategies and motivations for weight loss have changed over time, their lack of success is the common denominator. Studies show that as many as 95% of dieters regain the weight lost within five years, reflecting the struggle of turning healthy intentions into actions for long-term change.

As obesity rates rise, being overweight or obese is increasingly the norm: we’re on track for half the global population to be overweight or obese by 2050. In the UK, we’re well ahead of the curve, with more than two-thirds of adults fitting those classifications.

No surprise that in recent years there’s been an explosion of interest in GLP-1 “wonder drugs” that reduce appetite with weekly injections. Recent trials indicate Mounjaro users can shed 20% of their body weight and 18cm from their waists, results more impressive than the still sizeable losses reported for competitor Wegovy.

GLP-1 shopping baskets: what’s hot and what’s not?

GLP-1 users aren’t just consuming fewer calories, they’re making different choices. After cost, negative side effects like gastrointestinal issues are one of the main reasons Americans state for not starting the drugs. With altering tastes and side effects to combat, smaller portions, hydration, and nutrient-dense, higher protein products are in (the latter to help retain muscle mass). Fizzy, caffeinated and alcoholic drinks, fatty, salty, spicy and sweeter products are out, or at least reduced.

While some changes are specific to the medication, many synergise with existing health focus areas: higher protein, functional foods and gut health.

The ripple effects spread beyond grocery into restaurants and hospitality, beauty, apparel, fitness, health and wellbeing. Google “Ozempic” and any body part, and you’re sure to find content on how to combat the issue.

Margins of error make doing the maths a minefield

Every industry touched by GLP-1s are rapidly doing the maths. All these changes add up billions of dollars of opportunities or losses.

A recent Cornell University study reported a 5.5% reduction in household grocery spending within six months of adoption of GLP-1 drugs, including an 11% decline in savoury snacks. Higher income households demonstrated an even greater spending reduction of 8.6%. Away From home spend also felt the effects, with a 8.6% decline of spend in fast food restaurants, coffee specialists, and quick service restaurants.

Industry adaptations underway

PepsiCo’s US$1.95 bn acquisition of Poppi prebiotic soda is one of the latest in a series of acquisitions that signal multinationals more closely aligning with health trends.

There’s a growing number of case studies directly responding to GLP-1 dietary needs. More companion products are emerging: UK-based D2C meal provider Field Doctor has launched a line of GLP-1 friendly lines. Compatibility is a big opportunity: quick service chain Smoothie King is positioning menu items that “support” the routine; protein and fibre-rich, with no sugar. GLP-1 dupes are another avenue of interest, including Nestle’s Boost Pre-Meal Hunger Support protein shots, aiming to stimulate a similar natural effect to the weight-loss drugs. 

The existing trend of services and platforms offering personalised health support is set to be supercharged as weight loss drug users seek to make lifestyle shifts alongside medication. This opportunity is already being seized by existing weight loss service providers like Noom, which has recently launched a personalised GLP-1 programme. With a wealth of existing data, increasing crossover between health and grocery remits, and high levels of trust from consumers, retailers could be well-positioned to play a role in this space.

Factors that will shape the future of GLP-1s

There remain many unknown variables to factor into future projections. Pharmaceutical companies are investing heavily to produce next-generation GLP-1s for weight loss and a range of other conditions. The drugs’ costs, accessibility, efficacy, and side effects will influence their impact on obesity and the grocery industry. By the time more affordable GLP-1 generics for weight loss reach the market, a new “wonder drug” 2.0 may be available.  

Usage patterns aren’t understood well enough yet either. The majority of users of GLP-1s for weight loss stop taking them within a year. Without significant changes to their pre-GLP-1 lifestyle, many regain the weight. Some return to GLP-1 usage, while others turn to “micro-dosing”. Diets could look very different through these different phases, and over time. Longitudinal studies will reveal a fuller picture in time.