Trading up, staying in: what’s driving UK food & drink?

Trading up, staying in: what’s driving UK food & drink?

IGD’s latest UK Total Consumption Forecast reveals how inflation, evolving behaviours, and economic recovery will shape the market through 2030.

As UK consumers continue to navigate rising costs, their food and drink choices are shifting, both in and out of the home. From cautious spending to confident trading up, discover the forces reshaping the nation’s appetite. 

Key takeaways:

1.      At Home market share grows while consumers target value: Retailers’ share of food and drink sales rises from 62.8% to 63.3% in 2025 as consumers prioritise value and manage tighter budgets.

2.      Budget vs experience Away From Home: As the Away From Home market grows 2.5% on 2024, consumers are shifting from restaurants to budget-friendly venues. However, for special occasions, they are prepared to spend more as they seek memorable experiences with high perceived value.

• Inflation-led growth: Total food and drink market value expected to hit £278.5bn in 2025, up 3.8% year-on-year, with inflation as the main driver.

• Long-term outlook: By 2030, the market is forecast to reach £331.1bn, supported by population growth and rising wages.

• Behavioural shift: Consumers are still cautious, but signs of “trading up” are emerging as confidence gradually returns.

• Dual-channel insight: Combines IGD’s trusted retail and foodservice forecasts to give a complete view of total consumption.

To find out more about how the UK’s food and drink market will perform in 2025-2030, check out our UK Total Consumption Forecast 

This report summarises IGD’s comprehensive and unique view of the UK’s total food and drink market by combining our trusted and robust forecasts:

1. At Home (retail), derived from our channel forecasts, excluding general merchandise sales.

2. Away From Home (AFH), from our complete Away From Home forecast.

Everyday economies: how consumers are rebalancing

With consumer uncertainty about their future financial well-being, savvy spending habits will persist. For many Away From Home consumers, a simple way to save is by reducing the frequency of dining out, reserving it for special occasions. Others are choosing more budget-friendly options to restaurants for their evening meals.

Shoppers, meanwhile, are balancing their priorities between saving money and shopping conveniently and efficiently. This trend supports the growth of discount retailers and online shopping.

Read the full report

To learn more about our findings and analysis, read the full UK Total Consumption forecast 2025-2030 report (available to Retail Analysis and Away From Home subscribers).

Not subscribed? To find out more about our subscriptions and gain access to our experts’ insights, contact us: [email protected]