The next access wave of GLP 1s

Orforglipron approved in the US and UAE

In early April 2026, the FDA approved Eli Lilly’s once‑daily oral GLP‑1, Foundayo (orforglipron), with initial shipments underway. The approval follows Novo Nordisk’s recent oral formulation launch under the Wegovy brand. Other markets are also moving fast, with the UAE approving Foundayo just days later.

What this changes for grocery is the adoption pool. Early market feedback suggests oral formats can bring in eligible but previously untreated consumers, including under‑represented groups such as men and younger adults. For retailers and suppliers, that broadens the GLP‑1 demographic and may shift shopping and consumption patterns over time.

As new medications create different experiences of dosing, tolerability, affordability and persistence, the need for in‑depth understanding of user behaviour is increasing. To explore how GLP‑1s are reshaping consumption, shoppers and growth opportunities, see IGD’s GLP‑1 Futures Programme. Contact [email protected].

Patent expiries and generics reshape access

Patent expiry is driving price competition, with generic versions of semaglutide starting to hit the shelves. In India, a first wave of domestic generics launched in March, with prices reported up to 80% below branded Wegovy. Dozens of additional launches are expected in the market this year.

China is another key market tipped for rapid GLP-1 growth as local competition increases and Novo Nordisk’s core patent position changes. Mintel has projected that China could outstrip the US as the largest market for these drugs by 2030.

Canada is also expected to see generic entry, although manufacturing, distribution and regulatory timelines are creating a gap between patent expiry (January 2026) and products reaching shelves later in the year.

For grocery, lower-cost options are likely to broaden adoption into more value-led shopper groups and regions. That increases the need to revisit private label strategy, value tiers and price-pack architecture in the better-for-you space, and to monitor where category shifts show up first at catchment level.

Because generics will arrive in markets on different timelines, cross-border prescription filling and grey-market use are set to increase. Not only will this make usage harder to track,  demographics and make local uptake harder to track, increasing the importance of triangulating signals across pharmacies, loyalty data and category performance.

Next-generation weight-loss medication

Amongst the many products in clinical development, Eli Lilly’s triple agonist retatrutide is gaining attention. Its designed to target GLP‑1, GIP and glucagon receptors to increase metabolic impact compared to earlier GLP‑1 therapies. Recent trial results show the highest dose delivers an average 28.7% weight loss over 68 weeks, significantly higher than previous generations of GLP-1s. However, known and new side effects remain a challenge for real world tolerability. The programme is now in late-stage trials, but could submit for FDA approval later this year.

The different ways the drug works, as well as the potentially higher weight loss it could unlock could deepen the anticipated impact on the grocery industry.

Shifting dynamics

The dynamics of speed, breadth and depth of adoption continue to evolve. The easier the drugs are to start and stay on, the more important it becomes to track local uptake and anticipate changing behaviours. For retailers and suppliers, the immediate priority is to separate signal from noise.