Online grocery leads 2025 retail growth trend

1. The online channel is forecasted to be the fastest-growing channel globally between 2024 and 2029, with a CAGR of 6.0%.

2. This will result in an additional $164 billion worth of sales, ultimately generating a total of $646 billion in 2029.

3. Asia will see the highest sales growth to 2029, where an additional $62.4 billion will be generated, while growth in Australasia is expected to be very strong, with a CAGR of 8.3%.

The online channel has experienced exceptional growth in recent years and is set to remain the fastest-growing retail channel globally through 2029. IGD’s latest Global online retail trends report reveals that this growth will add $164 billion in sales, bringing the channel’s total to $646 billion by 2029. It is also expected to gain the most market share of all modern grocery channels, increasing by 0.5% to reach 6.3%.

The report highlights that while Asia will lead in absolute sales growth, Australasia will see the fastest growth rate, and North America will remain a hub for innovation, with Walmart and Amazon continuing to dominate. However, this growth comes with profitability challenges. As online penetration deepens, grocery retailers are under pressure to manage rising operational costs and protect margins.

Michaela Jay, Insight Manager at IGD, commented:

“The way people shop online is different to how they shop in-store, so this is a critical channel to get right. Speed, ease, and convenience are more important than ever to shoppers, which is why online continues to grow rapidly. But with disposable incomes under pressure and the perceived higher costs associated with online, retailers must continue to deliver great value and service to maintain momentum.”

To sustain growth and improve profitability, the report urges retailers and suppliers to focus on emerging revenue levers and offset operating costs through four key trends:

• Retail media: Monetising digital advertising space and shopper data.

• Quick commerce: Meeting demand for rapid delivery.

• Fulfilment: Reducing last-mile costs and improving efficiencies.

• Added services: Providing deeper shopper engagement, loyalty and differentiation.

There are varying levels of maturity in the online space. While some businesses have established strategies, others are still developing and evolving their online business plans. How retailers and suppliers should respond based on the four trends will differ depending on how advanced their ecommerce business is. This is brought to life through actionable implications in the report which highlights the initial steps needed to define the online strategy and the next steps to take to evolve the online strategy in a profitable way, for both retailers and suppliers.

The report also explores the critical role of online in enabling unified commerce—the seamless integration of digital and physical retail. It identifies the core capabilities that underpin this future and benchmarks how leading global retailers are progressing. As the industry moves toward a more connected and shopper-centric model, businesses must begin laying the groundwork today—aligning internal operations with evolving customer expectations to stay competitive tomorrow

Download the report

IGD’s Global online retail trends report is now available. It provides a comprehensive global overview of the online channel, including forecasts, retailer strategies, and the trends shaping its evolution. Whether you're a retailer or supplier, this report will help you make informed strategic decisions and stay competitive in a rapidly changing market

Want to know more?

To download the Global online trends report, visit IGD’s website.

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Notes to editors:

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3. IGD brings together stakeholders from across the food system, fostering action across on critical challenges across a broad cross section of forums. Through evidence-based insights, credible research, and thought leadership, IGD guides businesses to make informed decisions that not only benefit their operations but also contribute to the collective good of society.  As a charity with a long-standing commitment to the food and grocery industry, IGD does not advocate for any single commercial interest but works towards fostering alignment on shared goals that can have a positive, lasting impact on both the industry and the communities it serves. Its neutrality and impartiality are key to its role in facilitating collaboration, whether through policy development or addressing emerging risks and opportunities. By staying connected to the changing dynamics of the world, IGD ensures that the food system remains robust and sustainable, creating tangible benefits for businesses, consumers and society.