IGD: Resilience built now will define retail competition in 2040

Food and grocery businesses that invest early in long-term resilience will increasingly shape how the industry competes over the next two decades, according to new foresight from IGD (Institute of Grocery Distribution). 

In its new foresight report, ‘The future of the industry’, IGD sets out eight interconnected predictions that are already taking shape across the sector. Together, they point to a future defined by greater volatility, faster change, and far less tolerance for inefficiency, inflexibility, and delayed action. 

As long‑term pressures intensify and converge, early investment in adaptable capabilities across people, technology, and operating models will increasingly determine which businesses can sustain performance through to 2040. 

While many companies remain focused on navigating immediate pressures such as cost inflation, margin volatility, and regulatory change, IGD warns that longer‑term structural forces will increasingly shape competitive outcomes across the industry. These range from business models and operating capabilities to supply chains and workforce strategies. 

The predictions point to mounting pressure to create sustainable food systems, rising exposure to extreme disruption, intensifying scrutiny of commercial decision‑making and widening performance gaps between businesses that adapt or do not. 

Toby Pickard, Retail Futures Senior Partner at IGD, said: “The choices leaders make over the next few years will shape their long‑term competitiveness. With our eight predictions already taking shape across the industry, actions taken today will determine how effectively businesses can adapt as these forces accelerate.” 

IGD’s eight predictions in summary 

• The industry will need to actualise sustainable food systems at greater pace and scale, with progress to date falling short of what is required. 

• Businesses must be equipped to deal with extremes, as climate events, disease, geopolitical tension and other disruptions become more frequent and severe. 

• The food and grocery industry will need to provide for larger, denser and increasingly urban populations, often living with less space, lower loyalty, and greater choice. 

• Decision‑making will become a constant balancing act as social, environmental and political scrutiny intensifies and expectations fragment. 

• Competitive pressure and performance gaps will widen as the strongest businesses extend their advantage. 

• Relevance will become critical as technology enables personalisation at scale while raising expectations around data, trust and value. 

• High‑performing people will be central to success as roles, skills and labour models are reshaped by technology and demographic change. 

• Persistent technological innovation will continually redefine what is possible – and which business models remain viable. 

IGD stresses that these predictions will not unfold independently. Instead, they will interact and amplify one another, accelerating disruption and reducing tolerance for inefficiency, inflexibility, and delayed action. 

Pickard added: “Preparing for the future is less about predicting outcomes with certainty and more about building the resilience and capabilities needed to respond as conditions change.  

“As these pressures converge, the margin for error becomes very small. Businesses that have not built the capacity to adapt quickly will find the environment increasingly unforgiving.” 

IGD’s ‘The future of the industry’ report, explores the predictions in depth and examines how long‑term societal, technological, political, and resource pressures are likely to reshape the food and grocery landscape to 2040 and beyond. 
 

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Notes to editors: 

1. All content is owned by IGD. If you use or refer to any content in this press release, please credit IGD. 

2. Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/igd/  

3. IGD brings together stakeholders from across the food system, fostering action across on critical challenges across a broad cross section of forums. Through evidence-based insights, credible research, and thought leadership, IGD guides businesses to make informed decisions that not only benefit their operations but also contribute to the collective good of society.  As a charity with a long-standing commitment to the food and grocery industry, IGD does not advocate for any single commercial interest but works towards fostering alignment on shared goals that can have a positive, lasting impact on both the industry and the communities it serves. Its neutrality and impartiality are key to its role in facilitating collaboration, whether through policy development or addressing emerging risks and opportunities. By staying connected to the changing dynamics of the world, IGD ensures that the food system remains robust and sustainable, creating tangible benefits for businesses, consumers and society.