Economics: Credit card data shows impact of “lockdown”
11 March 2021New ONS data shows levels of credit and debit card activity at 100 major UK retail businesses, in both real-world and online channels, since the outbreak of...
New ONS data shows levels of credit and debit card activity at 100 major UK retail businesses, in both real-world and online channels, since the outbreak of Coronavirus.
This data gives a picture of consumer activity, albeit an incomplete one – it does not cover cash transactions or smaller retailers, for example.
Retailers are divided into 4 broad types (this is somewhat arbitrary):
Staples – essential goods such as utilities and groceries
Work related – public transport and fuel
Delayable – discretionary goods such as clothing and furniture
Social – leisure services such as holidays and eating out
Source: Coronavirus and the Latest Indicators for the UK Economy and Society, ONS, March 2021. Note: Each data point is average for previous 7 days
The data shows that “staple” retail spending remained fairly stable, apart from spikes in March and December 2020 (probably associated with stocking-up and Christmas respectively).
Sales for grocery retail specifically have been much more buoyant, of course, as shown by sources such as Kantar’s Worldpanel.
Sales for “delayable” retail fell in the wake of the first “lockdown” in Spring, then returned as lockdown was released.
It is not clear whether these retailers will enjoy any further “bounce” in 2021 – sales delayed during lockdown may have been lost entirely.
Since then, “delayable” sales have tended to track alongside “staples”, suggesting that retailers in this field have been able to adapt to new conditions (eg: by moving to online operation).
As might be expected, spending on “work related” and “social” businesses were hit hardest by the first lockdown and have recovered least since then.
Hopefully, the government’s “roadmap” out of lockdown, coupled with targeted action to support the affected sectors, will help businesses to recover over 2021.