Easter 2027: how to plan for a year of disruption

The global food industry is currently navigating a period of significant volatility, making long-term planning essential for seasonal success. This article examines the structural challenges facing supply chains as businesses prepare for Easter 2027 and beyond.

Managing commodity price volatility

For food businesses, chocolate is a cornerstone of the Easter line-up. Unfortunately, global prices for cocoa have been extremely volatile in recent years. Prices at the beginning of 2022 were around US$2,600 per tonne but rose to around US$12,000 per tonne by mid-2024, mainly due to unfavourable weather and disease in key West African growing areas. Since it takes years for a new cocoa tree to produce a crop, it is hard for producers to expand production in response to rising prices, even when conditions are supportive.

Rising operational costs and retail pricing

Higher prices for raw materials have been accompanied by higher operating costs for food businesses, such as labour and packaging, often due to regulatory compliance. For shoppers, this has resulted in more expensive and often lower-specification chocolate products. Since 2025, wholesale cocoa prices have fallen back, but this may take some time to feed through to retail prices. Typically, the cocoa needed for Easter eggs is purchased many months before goods appear in stores. Also, higher costs in other areas are unlikely to recede, especially where they are driven by legislation.

Addressing supply chain fragility

Price spikes can also be seen in other seasonal markets like Spring lamb, where UK prices have risen steeply due to supply shortfalls. These changes demonstrate that key inputs for Easter trading are fragile and lack resilience in the face of climate change. Unless this is addressed, volatile pricing will remain a feature of food markets. The only way to create stability is to focus on developing the capacity to produce and distribute foods, ideally close to home.

Forecast for the 2027 season

Looking ahead to 2027, the primary challenge for retailers will be balancing price stability with the necessity of maintaining product quality. While commodity markets may stabilise, the structural costs of labour and sustainability compliance are permanent fixtures. Success will depend on earlier procurement cycles and a shift towards domestic supply chains to mitigate the risks of international crop failures.

We forecast that the market will move toward more diversified seasonal offerings, reducing the over-reliance on single high-risk commodities like cocoa. Retailers who invest in supply chain transparency and local sourcing now will be better positioned to withstand the next wave of disruption, ensuring that seasonal events remain accessible to the price-sensitive shopper. For those in the planning phase for next year, we have identified three considerations for how to win Easter 2027.