Bulletin: Trump’s tariffs – the uncertainty ahead

Court overturns Trump tariffs, uncertainty ahead

The Court of International Trade has ruled that the global tariffs imposed by President Trump “exceed any authority granted to the President by IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act)”.

The Court has therefore ruled some tariff measures unlawful, including:

• 30% tariff on Chinese goods

• 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods

• 10% tariff on other goods

US tariffs on cars, car parts and metals remain in-place, since these were imposed using other powers.

A federal appeals court has temporarily suspended the lower court's order. The Court of International Trade and the Trump administration must respond by 5 June and 9 June, respectively.

IGD opinion

Some will welcome this new ruling – stock markets have responded favourably - but it also creates new uncertainty over the direction of US trade policy.

This case could, potentially, go all the way to the Supreme Court for final adjudication, a process that could take months, or years. If the tariffs are ruled illegal by all courts, businesses who have had to pay tariffs will receive refunds on the amounts paid, with interest.

In the meantime, the ability of the US President to bring economic pressure to bear on other nations will be greatly limited. President Trump recently threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU by 1 June. He then pushed the deadline back to 9 July.

The future of “deals” done by the US with other countries – including the UK – is now also in doubt.

Can AI reboot the food industry?

An artificial intelligence-powered project to redistribute surplus meals across the UK has been launched by major food brands and charities. The consortium aims to redistribute up to 700 tonnes of quality surplus food, or around 1.5 million meals.

The recent IGD Economic Viewpoint report, How to respond to rising costs in 2025, emphasised the urgent need for businesses to ramp up investment in AI and robotics to ensure a thriving and resilient food system.

IGD opinion

Despite the challenges, there are opportunities for the entire food industry to adapt. Retailers are increasingly turning to technology to boost productivity, cut costs, and cope with rising labour expenses amidst staffing challenges. In retail these advancements are reshaping efficiency and setting new benchmarks. Beyond daily tasks, technology is transforming inventory management, reducing theft, and unlocking revenue through data monetization. In a rapidly evolving market, technology provides retailers with the edge they need to adapt and succeed.

UK growth boost, but risks remain

The IMF has completed its latest review of the UK economy. Based on performance in the first quarter, it has slightly upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.1% to 1.2%.

IMF analysts were supportive of UK economic policy but noted that risks remain on the downside (i.e. outcomes more likely to undershoot the forecasts than overshoot).

Key risks identified were global trade disruption and ongoing caution amongst households. The IMF also encouraged the government to maintain fiscal discipline and continue to pursue economic reform.

IGD opinion

The UK government has welcomed the IMF analysis with some enthusiasm.

However, growth of 1.2% - even if achieved - would still be fairly miserable, especially given weak comparables and rapid population growth.

The UK’s economic and fiscal challenges run deep and fixing them will take decades, not years.

On the positive side, government policy is sensible, and this has now been recognised by a respected outside body, giving extra credibility.

The food and drink system has the scale and expertise to support economic rebuilding.

We await the Food Strategy and other policy documents which will explain exactly what the industry is expected to do.

Global temperatures set to surge beyond 1.5°C

A report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that global temperatures will likely continue rising. It predicts an 86 per cent chance that global average temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years.

The Met Office has reported that 2025 is already the UK’s sunniest spring on record. See our latest article on Dry weather tests resilience of the UK food system.

Apprenticeship changes

The government has announced changes to apprenticeships. This includes:

• Refocusing funding away from Level 7 (masters-level) apprenticeships from January 2026, while maintaining support for those aged 16 to 21 and existing apprentices

• An extra 30,000 apprenticeships in the next four years

• 120,000 new training opportunities

IGD opinion

The food industry must seize opportunities from apprenticeship changes and invest in early careers to tackle labour shortages. Attracting talent for technical, engineering, and digital roles remains challenging due to low awareness of STEM careers in food.

IGD’s "Mmmake Your Mark" campaign unites businesses, trade bodies, and government to showcase dynamic industry careers. Contact IGD at [email protected] to find out how your organisation can take part in the campaign starting 27 August.