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Bulletin: £2.6bn climate risk to UK food

09 October 2025

Featuring climate change, economic growth, Viewpoint report, HFSS, EAT-Lancet, healthy and sustainable diets, pub licensing rules.

£2.6bn warning to UK food system from climate risk

A recent IGD report, A climate risk assessment for the UK food system, shows that sticking to “business as usual” could cost the UK food system an extra £2.6bn, 14.7% of annual commodity spend. Fruit and vegetables are most exposed, with Spain flagged as a high-risk sourcing hub.

Read our latest article, Understanding the impacts of climate on UK food.

IGD opinion

This model strengthens the case for urgent climate action. Faster progress to net zero cuts future risk, while adaptation builds resilience now.

Growth forecasts, the Budget and a £5bn opportunity

With the OBR likely to downgrade UK growth forecasts ahead of the November Budget, IGD’s Viewpoint report, Driving growth through a thriving food system, outlines that strategic policy action could generate £5bn in investment, boost annual domestic production by £1.3bn by 2030, create 60,000 jobs, and strengthen the UK's food security.

Download the free Viewpoint report.

HFSS promotions ban marks policy shift in England

England’s HFSS policy has entered a new phase. The banning of volume promotions on high fat, salt and sugar products (since 01 October) marks a decisive shift in public health strategy. Next steps include UK-wide advertising restrictions from 05 January 2026 and mandatory healthy sales reporting before the end of this Parliament. Businesses must now prepare for stricter rules and regional variations.

Read our latest article, HFSS promotions ban marks policy shift in England.

EAT-Lancet 2025: A $5 trillion opportunity to rethink food systems

Six years after its predecessor, the 2025 Eat-Lancet Commission again urges a radical shift in global food systems. It reinforces that the way the world produces and consumes food is exceeding planetary boundaries, providing suggestions on how to transform the food system. This comes at a cost of $200-500 billion a year, with at least a ten-fold return through better population and planetary health.

Read our latest article, The 2025 EAT-Lancet commission explained.

IGD opinion

The question remains whether EAT-Lancet presents the best approach, regardless, it reinforces that the path to healthy, sustainable diets requires systemic transformation. IGD’s work shows that collaboration between industry, government and academia can accelerate change. As the science evolves, so must the food system. The question is not whether transformation will happen, but how quickly the food industry can drive it. 

Potential changes to pub licensing rules

The Government has launched a fast-track review to scrap outdated licensing rules that restrict pubs and local events. A four-week call for evidence aims to boost street food, live music, and community gatherings.

The Prime Minister stated “This review is about cutting red tape, boosting footfall, and making it easier for venues to put on the kind of events that bring people together. When our locals do well, our economy does too.”

Tobacco and vapes bill – call for evidence

The Government has launched a call for evidence to support new tobacco and vape legislation. Evidence is required concerning:

  • Substances and ingredients used to create flavours in vapes and nicotine products

  • Levels of nicotine that should be permitted in nicotine-containing products

  • Size and shape of vapes, vape-like devices and tanks, and the role of technology in these devices

  • Proposal to introduce a new licensing scheme for selling tobacco, vaping and nicotine products

  • Proposal to introduce a new product registration scheme in the UK

The call for evidence closes on 03 December 2025.

Michael Freedman
Head of Economic and Consumer Insight

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