Bulletin: NHS Plan – food and drink impact

NHS 10-year plan – big changes for food and drink

The government has announced the NHS 10-year Health Plan, which shows a clear shift of focus from sickness to prevention.

The items being introduced include:

• Mandatory reporting on healthy food sales for all large companies in the food sector 

• Government set targets to increase healthy food sales  

• An update to the 2004 Nutrient Profiling Model (HFSS legislation is based on this)

 The policy will see all big food businesses report on healthy food sales. This will set full transparency and accountability around the food that businesses are selling and encourage healthier products.

See our latest article for more details.

Final EPR fees published

Defra has announced finalised fees for Year One (2025-26) of the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) scheme. Many fees are lower than previously forecast. Even so, businesses in the UK will face new significant costs. Timing was signalled in advance, but there is only a short time between publication of finalised fees and the deadline for payment

See our article Final EPR fees published – impact on businesses for more details and our opinion.

Food inflation forecast

New EPR fees is one of the forces which will influence food and drink inflation in 2025. This will be accounted for in IGD’s latest retail food and drink inflation forecast. Get the insights first when the new Viewpoint report is published later this month. Sign up now to stay ahead.

Away From Home growth forecast

In the latest Away From Home forecast, IGD predicts year-on-year growth of 2.5%, leading to a projected food and drink sales value of £102.3bn. The outlook to 2030 shows a gradual improvement in market value to £123.3bn. This is partly due to steady population growth but, again, mostly due to inflation.

Hospitality and catering businesses can now access comprehensive market data and expert insight with IGD’s new service, Away From Home.

IGD opinion

The market continues to face a challenging trading environment, but the industry has faced tough times before. Those who are the most resilient and informed will survive and step into a more profitable and robust future.

Welfare reform passed - at a cost of savings

The government’s Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill passed its second reading in Parliament despite a backbench rebellion. However, significant concessions were made that undermine its original aim to cut £5bn in annual disability and sickness-related benefit spending by 2030.

Key changes to the bill:

• Planned changes to PIP for new claimants have been delayed pending a formal review.

• Existing PIP recipients are protected from losing any benefits.

The bill was intended to help manage the welfare budget and encourage claimants back into work. But revised measures will blunt its fiscal impact.

IGD opinion

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warns that the revisions mean there will be no net savings by 2029/30. This adds pressure to already stretched public finances. The government still needs to find substantial cuts in areas such as welfare, health, and pensions—no small feat.

Lenders will be closely monitoring the situation, and failure to find alternative savings may drive up the cost of government borrowing.

What is clear is that plans for the Autumn Budget might need to be revisited with more emphasis on tax raising rather than cost cutting.