Away From Home forecast: pockets of growth in tough conditions
30 June 2025With inflation driving value growth, where are the “hot spots” of volume growth you can capitalise on? Find out in our Away From Home (AFH) forecast.
Our Away From Home forecast offers a comprehensive overview of the total value of food and drink consumed outside the home, served from foodservice outlets.
The report offers insights into the evolving market across nine sectors, highlighting areas of growth and decline, and identifying potential opportunities for all stakeholders.
Inflation to drive growth
In 2025, we expect year-on-year growth of 2.5%, leading to a projected food and drink sales value of £102.3bn. The main driver of growth will be inflation, forecast to average at 5.1%. This is higher than the forecast for the retail food and drink inflation rate (3.4%) due to increased labour costs disproportionately affecting service-reliant sectors.
The outlook to 2030 shows a gradual improvement in market value to £123.3bn. This is partly due to steady population growth but, again, mostly due to inflation. In real terms, the market won’t return to pre-pandemic levels within the forecast period, reflecting ongoing economic pressures on consumers and operators.
Economic and consumer behaviour impacts
We forecast a reduction in sites across casual dining restaurants, pubs, bars, and fast food outlets for the next two years. This will be a direct impact of rising operational costs and subdued consumer spending.
Consumers are using several strategies to cut back on spending. Many opt for “just a drink” or a drink paired with a snack. Others are choosing cheaper alternatives and taking advantage of deals and promotions. They are also changing their socialising habits to prioritise experiences, with food a secondary focus.
In the short term, this translates as casual dining restaurants, pubs and independent fast food outlets facing subdued visits and spend per visit.
Opportunities to grow volumes
However, despite challenging conditions, the AFH market does offer opportunities for growth, as IGD’s Senior Insight Analyst, Nichola Gallagher, highlights:
Speakers
Nichola Gallagher
Senior Insight Analyst, IGD
The Away From Home market is facing various challenges - not least the multi-faceted impacts of a struggling economy – and many of them are contributing to a decline in volumes. Changes in consumer behaviour, however, present a number of growth opportunities to those who adjust to meet consumer demand, which we cover in this report.
Download the full report
To learn more about our findings and the opportunities for growth our experts have identified, read the full Away From Home forecast 2025-2030 report (available to Retail Analysis and Away From Home subscribers).
Not subscribed? To find out more about our subscriptions and gain access to our experts’ insights, contact us: [email protected]