The global grocery retail market will generate an additional US$2.2 trillion in sales by 2024, growing by 24%, according to the latest forecast from international research organisation IGD.

 

IGD’s forecast anticipates:

• Asia will account for nearly 50% of all new sales produced between 2019 and 2024
• North America is set to produce 12% of the new sales to 2024
• Overall, Europe is set to account for nearly 16% of new sales to 2024, with Western Europe generating almost two-thirds of these
• Latin America has seen a slowdown in growth in 2019, which is expected to bounce back in the short term

 

Regarding growth in Asia, IGD’s Head of Asia Nick Miles said:

“Asia’s importance to the global grocery market will continue to grow, with eight of the top 20 largest markets set to be in the region in five years’ time. China, India, Japan and Indonesia will account for the majority of new grocery sales generated in Asia between 2019 and 2024. China will overtake the US in 2022 to become the largest grocery market in the world and will account for 43% of new grocery sales in Asia over the next five years. India will also grow in significance, accounting for nearly a fifth (23%) of new sales.

“Traditional trade will continue to grow, while modern trade will benefit from more stores and improvements to existing operations. Growth will vary considerably by market, with convenience and online set to contribute the fastest growth. Online in particular will grow in importance across all markets.”

 

On North America, Stewart Samuel, Programme Director at IGD Canada, said:

“As a mature market, growth is slow and steady and the economic outlook remains mixed. Online grocery and the discounters will be the fastest growing channels over the next five years. For online, we are in a period of rapid expansion, with retailers seeking to build scale in the channel. Discount retailers, both hard discounters and dollar store operators, are evolving their models and aiming to grab a greater share of customers’ food spend.”

 

On Western Europe, Head of EMEA Jon Wright said:

“Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK combined will account for nearly two-thirds of all new sales generated between 2019 and 2024.

“Discounters and the online channel are set to be the key drivers of growth to 2024, with both gaining share versus established channels like hypermarkets and supermarkets. In discount, the continued expansion of regional retailers like Aldi and Lidl will underpin growth, but in specific countries national champions like REMA 1000, Netto and Eurospin will support this growth too. Online will benefit from more investment in improved delivery solutions.”

 

Commenting on growth in Central and Eastern Europe, Jon Wright said:

“The discount and supermarket channels will be responsible for most of the additional sales generated between 2019 and 2024 for central and eastern Europe, accounting for nearly 50% of the region’s grocery sales growth. Discounters will be the biggest contributor. X5’s Pyaterochka in Russia, Lidl across the region and Biedronka in Poland will continue to add stores to 2024, enabling new shoppers to access their stores more frequently.”

 

Regarding growth in Latin America, Retail Analyst Oliver Butterworth said:

“The majority of growth in Latin America will be driven by Brazil, which accounts for more than a third of the region’s grocery market. Cash and carry is the fastest growing physical channel in the country, which will cause hypermarkets to continue to lose share. Carrefour and GPA, two of Brazil’s top three grocery retailers, are each opening around 20 new cash and carry stores annually and this pace of expansion is likely to continue in the medium-term.”

 

For more insights into IGD’s predictions for global grocery market growth, visit IGD Retail Analysis.

 

Global market growth 2019-2024

Rank	Country	2019 US$bn	2024 US$bn	Total change 2019-2024	CAGR 2019-2024
1	China	1,429.2	1,888.8	32.2%	5.7%
2	USA	1,520.4	1,750.1	15.1%	2.9%
3	India	531.3	781.1	47.0%	8.0%
4	Japan	468.1	558.7	19.3%	3.6%
5	Brazil	324.3	404.9	24.8%	4.5%
6	Germany	285.3	328.7	15.2%	2.9%
7	France	263.5	297.4	12.9%	2.5%
8	Russia	261.2	279.3	6.9%	1.3%
9	United Kingdom	252.2	275.0	9.1%	1.7%
10	Mexico	211.8	265.9	25.6%	4.7%
11	Italy	203.6	227.8	11.8%	2.3%
12	Nigeria	128.1	205.6	60.5%	9.9%
13	Indonesia	139.7	191.0	36.7%	6.5%
14	Spain	128.5	148.4	15.5%	2.9%
15	Turkey	98.9	140.5	42.1%	7.3%
16	Canada	102.7	128.6	25.3%	4.6%
17	South Korea	97.6	120.0	22.9%	4.2%
18	Pakistan	85.7	111.6	30.1%	5.4%
19	Australia	92.4	107.5	16.4%	3.1%
20	Thailand	76.1	101.1	32.9%	5.8%
	TOTAL	6,700.6	8,312.0	24.0%

Source: IGD research

 

ENDS

 

For media enquiries please contact Alexandra Crisp at [email protected] or 01923 851986

 

Notes to editors:

1. IGD is a not for profit research and training organisation. It has a trading subsidiary that provides commercial insight services for the consumer goods industry. The profits from these commercial services fund our not for profit activities.
2. Source: IGD Research, using IMF, World Bank and UN base data
3. IGD defines a grocery retail market as all food, drink and non-food grocery products (e.g. health & beauty, pet care, clothing, DIY), sold through predominantly food-led retail outlets, in a given country. This definition includes modern retail formats, such as supermarkets and hypermarkets, and traditional retail formats, such as open-air markets and small specialists. The grocery retail market excludes wholesale, foodservice and drugstores/pharmacies. IGD market sizes are 'top down', calculated using data from statistical bodies wherever possible. In all other cases, our market sizes represent IGD estimates and are based on a consistent methodology and knowledge of local markets.
4. CAGR is calculated using nominal values in US$. Exchange rates for the period 2020-24 are based on the IMF’s data. Data excludes Cuba, Greenland, Liechtenstein, Libya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela and Yemen.
5. Follow IGD’s communications team on Twitter for all the latest retail insights: @Comms_IGD
6. All content is owned by IGD. If you use or refer to any content in this press release, please credit IGD