Economics bulletin 25 November

Date : 25 November 2022

Your overview of economic and policy news with a focus on the food and consumer goods industry. Featuring the latest developments and guidance on the rising cost of living, the Ukraine crisis, labour shortages, COVID-19 and adapting to a new relationship with the EU.

Consumers to further cut back spending  

IGD expects consumer sentiment to remain quite bleak in the months to come.  In our latest Viewpoint report: How bad is the economic storm? we reveal that:

  • 36.5 million (70%) will have to cut back spending further to absorb the increase in the energy price cap
  • 15% of those on the lowest incomes are planning to use food banks in the next few months

Read our latest Viewpoint report to learn more about the state of the UK economy, our latest forecasts for food price inflation, the current position shoppers are in and what it might mean for food and consumer goods businesses.

Economic activity to fall

The UK economy will be the worst performing nation of all advanced economies, except Russia, in 2023, according to the OECD. The UK economy is forecast to contract by 0.4% in 2023, before returning to 0.2% growth in 2024.

Egg shortages increase availability concerns

In the latest consumer research conducted for IGD (18-20 November 2022) availability concerns are increasing the most for dairy including eggs (+9% since September). Record numbers of avian flu cases coupled with increased costs of production has led to supply chain disruption for eggs.

See here for more details.

Food Waste Reduction Roadmap

IGD and WRAP are consulting with industry to review and refresh the Food Waste Reduction Roadmap to accelerate progress to reduce food waste.

Learn more about the proposed changes and feedback on the consultation here.

Hospitality insolvencies increase

Independent analysts have reported that restaurants are facing a “toxic mix of rising input costs, sharply rising finance costs and weak demand”. Restaurant insolvencies have risen by 59% in the past year, with more hospitality businesses becoming insolvent than during COVID-19.


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