Economics bulletin 06 April

Date : 06 April 2023

Your overview of economic and policy news with a focus on the food and consumer goods industry. Featuring the latest developments and guidance on the rising cost of living, disruptions to supply chains, the Ukraine crisis, labour shortages, policy developments and adapting to a new relationship with the EU.

New Target Operating Model

The Government has published the Target Operating Model (TOM). This sets out how trade will operate between the UK and the rest of the world. The new model will reduce the need for checks for many types of goods through:

  • The creation of a digitised Single Trade Window to make it easier to submit safety and security data.
  • A new global risk-based approach to sanitary and phytosanitary goods alongside the launch of simplified health certificates from Spring 2023, with digitised health certificates to be launched in 2024.

The government plans to implement TOM across three milestones between 31 October 2023 to 31 October 2024. Written feedback on the TOM proposals can be sent via the online portal or via email to [email protected]

We will provide a full analysis of the TOM on our website next week.

Consumer spending

Consumer sentiment may be starting to pick up a little. The latest consumer research conducted for IGD (31 March - 02 April 2023) has revealed that consumers are becoming less fearful with fewer planning to cut back spend across a range of activities including on food and groceries and eating out.

Understanding the future path of consumer sentiment is critical for business to perform successfully over the coming years. Register here for our Viewpoint webinar on 20 April to hear our latest thoughts on consumer sentiment alongside the economic and policy landscapes.

Stable shopper confidence

IGD’s Shopper Confidence index has remained stable this month (-18) and is still significantly higher than last year (-27 Aug’22 when the Energy Price Cap was announced). Fewer shoppers expect to be worse off financially in the year ahead. This is significantly lower than last August.

ShopperVista subscribers can read the full Shopper Confidence Index report here.

Business energy efficiency campaign

The Government has launched a new campaign to help businesses, charities and public sector bodies to increase their energy efficiency and bring down their bills.

A new website will be launched to offer small to medium sized businesses access to simple, low-cost changes that can offer significant energy savings.

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