Shopper confidence dips as virus cases rise and restrictions increase

Date : 13 October 2020

September saw a slight drop in shopper confidence as tighter restrictions and uncertainty over the EU exit led the news agenda, according to the latest IGD Shopper Confidence Index.

September 2020 results

Overall confidence slipped to -8 on average for the whole month, down from -7 in August. While the month started at -6, confidence fell to -10 by the end of the month. Remaining at a relatively low level, confidence appears to have been suppressed by news of increased COVID-19 cases and further national restrictions being put in place – notably, the rule of six, working from home where possible and the 10pm curfew for pubs and restaurants.

IGD ShopperVista September 2020

Index highlights

  • A third (32%) of shoppers expect to be worse off financially in the year ahead, up from 30% in August
  • With news of little progress in trade talks between the UK and EU, 18% of shoppers expect food prices to get much more expensive in the year ahead, the highest level since September’19
  • Confidence has declined the most among 18-24s and 35-44s. With announcements of redundancies, particularly impacting younger people, 38% of 18-24s expect to focus more on saving money on their food and groceries in the year ahead (vs 24% last month). This compares to 21% of all shoppers
  • With local lockdowns, confidence has declined significantly particularly in the West Midlands (-11 vs -6 Aug’20) and Wales (-11 vs -4). Both regions now have the lowest confidence.

Simon Wainwright, Director of Global Insight at IGD, said: “Shopper confidence is likely to remain fragile as the Job Retention Scheme comes to an end to be replaced by the Job Support Scheme, alongside shoppers contending with further uncertainties concerning COVID-19 and whether there is a deal or no-deal with the EU. This will no doubt lead to an increase in savvy shopping tactics over the coming months.

“With so much uncertainty at the moment, we anticipate shoppers’ confidence will respond to key announcements and media reports on COVID-19 and the EU.

“Despite this ongoing period of low confidence, positivity towards the food and grocery industry remains high. The continued actions that have been taken by retailers and manufacturers across the country to support those in need have increased this trust. Indeed, trust in the food industry to ensure good availability has remained high (78%) despite recent increased levels of stockpiling.”

The full IGD Shopper Confidence Index is available to subscribers on IGD ShopperVista.

ENDS

For media enquiries please contact Alexandra Crisp at [email protected] or call +44 7590183295

Notes to editors

  1. Source: IGD ShopperVista; base: 1000+ British shoppers, September 2020
  2. The IGD Shopper Confidence Index blends four key measures that relate directly to the food and consumer goods sector to calculate an overall indication of shopper confidence:
  • Household finances: expect to be better or worse off
  • Food prices: expect to get less or more expensive
  • Focus on quality vs. saving money: future and current focus
  • Trust in industry: across a range of measures
  1. These measures are combined, and the Index score is calculated. The index can vary from -100 to +100, where -100 is a very negative outlook and +100 a very positive outlook. It produces a monthly indication of GB shoppers’ food and grocery confidence, with trended data going back to 2013.
  2. The IGD Shopper Confidence Index will be updated each month with our latest data. Historical trend data is available back to 2013
  3. For more information about the Index and its measures, please visit IGD ShopperVista
  4. IGD is a research and training charity which sits at the heart of the food and grocery industry. IGD has a trading subsidiary that provides commercial services; the net profits from these services are invested into its four charitable pillars – People, Health & Wellness, Sustainability and Economic Analysis
  5. All content is owned by IGD. If you use or refer to any content in this press release, please credit IGD